This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.
100% Clean Electricity by 2035 ScenariosWe evaluated four main 100% clean electricity scenarios, which were each compared to two reference scenarios: one with "current policy" electricity demand (Reference-AEO) 2 and a second with much higher load growth through accelerated demand electrification (Reference-ADE). The Reference-ADE case includes rapid replacement of fossil fuel use with low-carbon alternatives across all sectors, including electrified end uses and low-carbon fuels and feedstocks, Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and the U.S. Long-Term Strategy (LTS) demand cases Supply-side sensitivities include renewable energy costs, storage costs, nuclear costs, electrolyzer costs, CCS cost and performance, transmission constraints, new natural gas restriction, natural gas fuel costs, expanded biomass supply, low-cost geothermal, and allowing DAC in the Infrastructure Renaissance and Constrained cases.
xvThis report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications.14 Given the reduction in motor gasoline and diesel fuels in the transportation sector under the ADE and LTS scenarios, this demand would likely decline over time. Hydrogen production to serve these needs is also expected to transition to lower-emissions pathways given the overall economywide decarbonization trajectory modeled under the scenarios. These dynamics are not modeled explicitly in our analysis.