@ERSpublicationsNewer methods of grading severity of airflow limitation perform better than the percent predicted of the FEV1 and deserve consideration in both prognostic models and individual patient assessment http://ow.ly/oQB030kvVEWCite this article as: Culver BH. Assessment of severity and prognosis in COPD: moving beyond percent of predicted. Eur Respir J 2018; 52: 1801005 [https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.01005-2018.There is broad consensus that airflow limitation, the primary physiological abnormality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), is best defined by a significant reduction in the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) or to the slow vital capacity. There is also abundant evidence that this reduction is most accurately identified as an individual value less than the lower limit of the normal range (LLN) specific to that individual, as determined from an appropriate healthy, non-smoking, reference population [1]. Because the FEV1/FVC ratio declines normally with age, using a non-individualised cut-off, such as 0.70, has been shown to cause an unacceptable level of misclassification with age and sex bias; this leads to over-diagnosis of 30% or more of older men and under-diagnosis of younger women [2][3][4][5]. There is much less consensus, however, on methods to indicate disease severity or to assess the likelihood of future outcomes. The most commonly used index is the percent of the predicted value of FEV1, with various cut-off points proposed for categories of severity, and this was endorsed in the 2005 American Thoracic Society (ATS)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) pulmonary function documents [1]. The use of standardised residuals (z-scores) to establish the normal range was recommended by the ERS in 1993 [6] and, more recently, they have also been evaluated as an index of severity [7]. Their use in pulmonary function reporting, particularly as part of a visual scale, has been endorsed in a current ATS technical statement [8]. Both percent of predicted and z-score depend upon the predicted value of FEV1, but predicted values have inherent uncertainty and may not accurately reflect some individuals. Other indices, based upon the absolute value of FEV1, and thus not dependent upon a reference value, have been proposed but are not yet in wide use. Recently in the European Respiratory Journal, HUANG et al. [9] reported an evaluation of seven methods to categorise reductions in FEV1, comparing their correlations to the outcomes of acute exacerbations and mortality. While this study in a Taiwanese population with confirmed COPD was relatively small (n=296) and predominantly male (94%), the results draw attention to some of the less commonly used indices and may cause us to rethink our dependence on percent of predicted.For each of the methods studied, the population was divided into four stages of severity and the reliability of the index was assessed by the correlation of these strata to increasingly worse outcomes. This analysis tests both the ...