Distribution of Incubation Period of COVID-19 in the Canadian Context: Modeling and Computational Study

Abstract

We propose an original model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost approach to estimate the incubation period.

Optimal Workplace Occupancy Strategies during the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…• τ : The time interval between two sequential tests of the same employee, averaged over all employees. As the symptoms of COVID-19 appear within two weeks [39,40], we assume τ varies from one day to 14 days (incubation period ). In order to keep the model as simple and parameter sparse as possible, we assume perfect tests with no false positives or negatives.…”