Disturbances to Urban Mobility and Comprehensive Estimation of Economic Losses

Abstract

Civil infrastructure systems are disturbed by natural or man-made hazards at an increasing frequency and severity. Among these systems, transportation systems are especially vulnerable due to their nature and are of significant importance to urban built environments as they maintain the mobility of urban dwellers and goods. Mobility disturbances are significant not only due to the direct losses associated but also due to the greater economic impacts driven by indirect losses stemming from the economic interactions of regions and sectors. Therefore, understanding the economic impacts of urban mobility disturbances is critical. To achieve a better understanding of the status quo of the research on transportation disturbances and economic impact analysis, a literature review was conducted. The review indicates that most of the articles fail to leverage realistic hazard impact information and explicit network modeling, consequently jeopardizing the credibility of the results. To begin addressing the gaps in the field, an interdisciplinary framework was designed to investigate the economic impacts of mobility disturbances. To validate the framework, a case study was conducted to estimate the economic impacts of commuting-based mobility disturbances resulting from a potential earthquake scenario in the Greater Los Angeles Area. The direct and indirect economic losses were estimated to be 285.49 and 93.48 million dollars, respectively. The results indicated that the economic losses could vary significantly among regions as well as industries. Among the five counties in the study region, Los Angeles County suffered the most. In addition, industries related to finance, education and scientific services, etc. were estimated to experience larger losses.