Diurnal temperature range and daily mortality in Shanghai, China

Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J.; Chen, Honglei; Song, Guang-Jing; Chen, Guohai; Jiang, Lili; Zhao, Na; Zhang, Yunhui; Chen, Bingheng

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2006.11.009

Cited by 178 publications

(137 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Our findings are somewhat in contradiction to those reported in the literature, where air pollution was not found to have a confounding effect on the association between mortality and diurnal temperature range (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Song et al 2008;Tam et al 2009). The difference in findings may be explained by our use of improved statistical models (the dlnm package), constraining the models to a 30-day lag period, while 3-day (Kan et al 2007), 5-day (Cao et al 2009) or 8-day (Tam et al 2009) lag periods were preferred in other studies, and using a 24 year long time series while the results reported in the literature were drawn from 4 or 6 year long series (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Song et al 2008;Tam et al 2009).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…The results of these studies, shown in Table 4, are roughly in the same range, 1.37% to 2.63% change in mortality per 1˚C increase in diurnal temperature range, even if the cause of death was different: non-accidental, cardiovascular or respiratory mortality (Kan et al 2007;Tam et al 2009), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (Song et al 2008), coronary heart disease (CHD) (Cao et al 2009). Of interest is the large 13.9% (95%CI: 0.8 to 28.8%) percentage increase in emergency room admissions for COPD that Liang et al found to be associated to a 1˚C increase in diurnal temperature range above the 9.6 ˚C cut-off point in Taiwan (Liang et al 2009), an effect six orders of magnitude larger than the effect on daily mortality counts.…”

Section: Effects Of Diurnal Temperature Variations On Daily Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 78%

“…A few recent papers support the hypothesis that diurnal variations in temperature may also have a notable impact on mortality, independent of the effect of the mean temperature (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Song et al 2008;Tam et al 2009) and robust to adjustment for air pollution (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Song et al 2008). In Shanghai, a time-series analysis showed a 1.37% (95% CI 1.08-1.65%) increase in total non-accidental mortality, 1.86% (95% CI 1.40-2.32%) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 1.29% (95% CI 0.49-2.09%) increase in respiratory mortality for a 1°C increase in the 3-day moving average for diurnal temperature range (Kan et al 2007). Subsequent studies showed a 1.25% (95% confidence interval: 0.35-2.15) increase in deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for a 1°C increase in the 4-day moving average of diurnal temperature range (Song et al 2008) and a 2.46% (95% CI, 1.76% to 3.16%) increase in coronary heart disease mortality for a 1°C increase in the 2-day lagged diurnal temperature range (Cao et al 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…It has been hypothesized that, in addition to daily changes in temperature, there may be additional effects from short-term variations of temperature within the day (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Liang et al 2009;Song et al 2008;Tam et al 2009). One such measure of within-day variability is the diurnal temperature range, which is defined by the US National Weather Service (NOAA National Weather Service 2009) as the temperature difference between the minimum at night and the maximum during the day.…”

Section: Effects Of Short-term Variations In Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the burgeoning literature addressing the effects of temperature on human health, there are only a handful of papers in which the short-term effects on health of diurnal variations in temperature have been investigated (Cao et al 2009;Kan et al 2007;Liang et al 2009;Song et al 2008;Tam et al 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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The association between short-term changes in ambient temperature and daily mortality has been described widely in the literature. A few recent papers support the hypothesis that diurnal variations in temperature may also have an impact on mortality, independent of the effect of daily mean temperature. The objective of the thesis was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature increased daily non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Quebec, during the 1984-2007 study period. We used distributed lag non-linear models constrained over a 30 day lag period, and adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone. We found over the 30 day lag period a cumulative increase of 5.12% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02 to 10.49) in daily mortality for an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 6 °C to 11 °C and a 11.27% (95% CI: 2.08 to 21.29) increase in mortality associated with an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 11 to 16 °C. The results were relatively robust to adjustment for mean temperature.In conclusion, we found that in Montreal daily diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm these effects.ii Résumé L'association entre les variations à court terme de la température ambiante et la mortalité quotidienne a été largement décrite dans la littérature. Quelques articles récents supportent l'hypothèse que les variations diurnes de la température peuvent également avoir un impact notable sur la mortalité, indépendamment de l'effet de la température moyenne. L'objectif de la thèse était de déterminer si les variations de température diurne provoquent une augmentation de la mortalité quotidienne non accidentelle chez les iii

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Effects Of Diurnal Temperature Variations On Daily Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Effects Of Short-term Variations In Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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Human Adaptation to Climate: Temperature, Ultraviolet Radiation, and Altitude

2012

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Semiparametric single index multi change points model with an application of environmental health study on mortality and temperature

Mahmoud

Kim

2016

Environmetrics

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Many studies have considered the effect of temperature and a change point in association with increased mortality. However, the relationship between temperature and mortality cannot be described using a parametric model and is highly dependent on the number of change points. Knowing the change points of temperature may prevent further mortality associated with the weather. The current available methods consist of two steps: they first estimate the models and then detect change points without testing. However, the methods for simultaneously identifying the nonlinear relationship and detecting the number of change points are quite limited. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a unified approach simultaneously estimates the nonlinear relationship and detects multichange points. We propose a semiparametric single index multichange points model as our unified approach by adjusting for several other covariates. We also provide a permutation‐based testing procedure to detect multichange points. A criterion for predetermining the maximum possible number of change points is introduced, which is required by the permutation test procedure. Our approach is unaffected by the degree of smoothing of the nonparametric function. Our proposed model is compared to the generalized linear model and generalized additive model using simulation and a real application. Our approach outperforms these models in both model fitting and detection of change point(s). We also show the asymptotic properties of the permutation test for semiparametric single index multichange points model, suggesting that the number of change points is consistent. The advantage of our approach is demonstrated using the mortality data of Seoul, South Korea.

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Diurnal temperature range and daily mortality in Shanghai, China

Cited by 178 publications

References 23 publications

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Human Adaptation to Climate: Temperature, Ultraviolet Radiation, and Altitude

Semiparametric single index multi change points model with an application of environmental health study on mortality and temperature

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