Diurnal Variations in Summer Precipitation over the Yellow River Basin

Zhao, Yang; Wang, Minzhong; Li, Jiao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Nan; Chen, Hong

doi:10.1155/2019/2482656

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…In particular, daily mean extreme precipitation is most intense over the southeastern NC, with values up to ~ 55 mm. This result is consistent with the spatial pattern documented by Zhao et al (2019b). This feature may have been caused by the foehn effect along the foot of the Taihang and Yanshan mountains and the humid airflow over eastern NC from the ocean (Fig.…”

Section: Extreme Precipitation Over Nc and Related Moisture Transportsupporting

confidence: 91%

Enhancement of the summer extreme precipitation over North China by interactions between moisture convergence and topographic settings

Zhao

Chen

Li³

et al. 2020

Clim Dyn

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This study investigates the roles of atmospheric moisture transport under the influence of topography for summer extreme precipitation over North China (NC) during 1979-2016. Based on rain gauge precipitation data and a reanalysis, 38 extreme precipitation days in NC during the 38 years were selected and associated moisture fluxes estimated. The results show that there is a dominant moisture influx of 311.8 kg m −1 s −1 into NC along its southern boundary from tropical oceans, and a secondary influx of 107.9 kg m −1 s −1 across its western boundary carried by mid-latitude westerlies. The outflux across the eastern boundary is 206.9 kg m −1 s −1 and across the northern boundary is 76.0 kg m −1 s −1 , giving a net moisture gain over NC of 136.8 kg m −1 s −1. During extreme precipitation days, the moisture flux convergence (MFC) was much larger, exceeding 4 × 10 −5 kg m −1 s −1. The MFC maximum core, the pronounced moisture transport, and the striking extreme precipitation zone over NC are all anchored to the east of the steep slopes of the surrounding topography. Moreover, a remarkably high humidity and strong upward motion also occur near steep slopes, indicating the critical role of the adjacent topography on the extreme precipitations. Simulations with and without the topography in NC using the Weather and Research Forecasting model for six selected out of the 38 extreme precipitation days demonstrate that the surrounding topography reinforces the MFC over NC by 16% relative to the case without terrain, primarily through enhanced wind convergence and higher moisture content, as well as stronger vertical motion induced by diabatic heating. The interactions between moisture convergence and topographic settings strengthen the extreme precipitation over NC.

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Section: Extreme Precipitation Over Nc and Related Moisture Transportsupporting

confidence: 91%

Enhancement of the summer extreme precipitation over North China by interactions between moisture convergence and topographic settings

Zhao

Chen

Li³

et al. 2020

Clim Dyn

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“…Yang et al [18] found that summer precipitation over the YRB is expected to increase at an average rate of 2.27 mm per decade under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8. 5), but decrease at a rate of 2.99 mm per decade for RCP4.5 during the future period of 2021-2050, as revealed by CMIP5.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The YRB is located in a semi-arid-semi-humid region and is strongly influenced by the distinct stepwise northward movement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) [3,4]. Under the modulation of a monsoon shift, around 70% of the annual precipitation over the YRB occurs in summer (June-July-August) [5]. Anomalous summer precipitation over the YRB causes frequent droughts and floods, leading to the displacement of millions of residents, grain yield reduction, economic loss, and soil erosion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Future Summer Precipitation over the Yellow River Basin: A Moisture Budget Perspective

Zhao

Tang³

2020

Atmosphere

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The projection of future precipitation over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is of great importance to regional climate change adaptation and mitigation. Using the historical simulations and projections under the four combined scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways and the forcing levels of the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by the multimodel ensemble mean of 10 models in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the projected spatial and temporal changes of future summer precipitation over the YRB and the possible physical mechanisms underlying future summer precipitation changes are investigated. Large discrepancies in precipitation exist among the four scenarios during the latter half period of the 21st century, with precipitation under SSP5-8.5 being the largest. Nevertheless, the precipitation under each of the four scenarios shows a similar spatial pattern over the YRB, with an east–west-oriented gradient. A comparison of projected moisture transport into the YRB among the four scenarios reveals two channels (westerlies and monsoon flow) under SSP5-8.5, whereas the monsoon flow from adjacent oceans is important under the other three scenarios. Further analysis of the unique features of the projected moisture flux and substantial increase in summer precipitation under SSP5-8.5 indicates that the future summer precipitation trend over the YRB can be mainly attributed to an increase in evaporation and moisture advection.

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“…The vulnerable natural system in the YRB is of interest to researchers worldwide because it reflects the evolution of water resources under climate change and human activity in the future (Wu et al 2016;Wang et al 2019b). Moreover, the precipitation in the YRB has changed in time and space for decades (Lu et al 2014;Zhang et al 2014Zhang et al , 2019Iqbal et al 2018;Zhao et al 2019), arousing many concerns and prompting research on future precipitation change as well as its impact on hydrology and water resources. The GCMs provide scenario determination and forcing data, forming the basis of climate change projection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterministic and probabilistic projections and their credibility in analyzing future precipitation variations in the Yellow River Basin, China

Sun

Zhang

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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It remains a key challenge to obtain reliable future precipitation estimates and their reliability under different climate scenarios. In this study, the deterministic projection of future precipitation in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) was obtained within the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A probability estimation method based on the BMA weighting scheme was proposed to obtain the probabilistic projection of precipitation. We also analyzed the credibility of these two projections. The results showed that four indexes projected by the BMA method showed an increasing trend with a higher probability. The probabilities of increasing with varying degrees were more than those for decreasing for all the precipitation indexes. The credibility of the precipitation estimation under specific climate scenarios was testified by the lower ED (the mean of long-term annual relative simulation deviation) and VD (the variance of long-term annual relative simulation deviation). The estimation based on the BMA model is more trustworthy than any other model. For the four precipitation indicators, the accuracy between the calculated VR (Variation range, to describe the interval of variation of the indicators) with the greatest likelihood and the actual VR was 38.31−53.74%. In 81.93−94.70% of grids, the deviations were smaller than one level. Both the deterministic and probabilistic projections have high geographic distribution and variation trend consistency.

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Diurnal Variations in Summer Precipitation over the Yellow River Basin

Cited by 11 publications

References 44 publications

Enhancement of the summer extreme precipitation over North China by interactions between moisture convergence and topographic settings

Enhancement of the summer extreme precipitation over North China by interactions between moisture convergence and topographic settings

Projection of Future Summer Precipitation over the Yellow River Basin: A Moisture Budget Perspective

Deterministic and probabilistic projections and their credibility in analyzing future precipitation variations in the Yellow River Basin, China

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