Divergence of species responses to climate change

Fei, Songlin; Desprez, Johanna M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Jo, Insu; Knott, Jonathan; Oswalt, Christopher M.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603055

Cited by 330 publications

(249 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…On the contrary, support for climate change variables mostly outweighed (based on absolute Wald z value) disturbance ones. South of our study area into the United States, climate gradients and their changes were also shown to have impacts on tree range shifts (Bose, Weiskittel, Wagner, & Pauchard, 2017a; Fei et al, ). Interestingly, despite our studying tree species at their northern range limit in eastern North America, greater extension of the growing season did not always lead to a higher probability of sapling recruitment at a site.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The availability of suitable data, such as repeated surveys of forest trees of North America over time periods at which climate change is usually considered (~30 years) and from longer chronologies established from tree rings, has begun to provide valuable insights into the spatially explicit responses of species to climate. For instance, whereas poleward shifts driven by increases in temperature were expected at high latitudes, westward shifts in species abundance associated with changes in moisture availability were also documented for trees in the eastern United States (Fei et al, ). These westward shifts were larger (median rate 15.4 km per decade) than the latitudinal ones (11.0 km per decade) and resulted from increased stem density at the leading edge.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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Climate change is expected to result in a reorganization of the continental distribution of tree species. Recent shifts in distribution patterns have been reported, but it is not always clear how climate change influences these patterns locally, especially in relation to other disturbances. We investigated latitudinal shifts of four ecologically important tree species between 1970 and 2014 within a study area that encompasses their northernmost range limit in northeastern North America (Quebec, Canada; ~761,000 km2). Changes in latitudinal limits were defined in relation to changes in tree saplings’ occurrence patterns within forest plots resampled over two time periods (1970–1977 and 2003–2014). By examining changes in the frequency of occurrences in different portions of the study area along a latitudinal gradient, we were able to identify spatially explicit patterns of loss or gain (sapling recruitment) resulting in the shifts observed. We then estimated the probability of observing a recruitment event in response to changes in climate, disturbance and their interaction, using a multimodel selection approach. Latitudinal limits of all four species shifted northward, but these shifts resulted from different patterns of plot occurrence changes, depending on the species and the location examined. Greater recruitment at northern locations than at southern ones drove shifts for Acer saccharum Marsh., Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. and Acer rubrum L., but less so for Betula alleghaniensis Britt. Climate variables indicating changes in early or late growing season conditions were most often selected in models. Warming tended to reduce recruitment probability in the south but increase it in the north, leading to divergent responses for a given species across the study area. Disturbance effects were generally less important than climate change effects, as was their interaction. Synthesis. Spatially explicit and divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species. The importance of early‐ or late‐season climate variables points towards biological processes being affected at critical stages of the life cycle. Understanding the factors that influence species’ migration capacity in a changing climate is crucial to inform adaptive management and conservation practices.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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“…However, as forest ecosystems respond to global change drivers like climate change, some species may decline while others may expand their ranges (Iverson et al 2008;Zhu et al 2014;Fei et al 2017). One key issue to be addressed in classification is how to handle expected changes to the forest classes that comprise a forest community classification.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Classifying forest inventory data into species-based forest community types at broad extents: exploring tradeoffs among supervised and unsupervised approaches

et al. 2018

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Background: Knowledge of the different kinds of tree communities that currently exist can provide a baseline for assessing the ecological attributes of forests and monitoring future changes. Forest inventory data can facilitate the development of this baseline knowledge across broad extents, but they first must be classified into forest community types. Here, we compared three alternative classifications across the United States using data from over 117,000 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Methods: Each plot had three forest community type labels: (1) "FIA" types were assigned by the FIA program using a supervised method; (2) "USNVC" types were assigned via a key based on the U.S. National Vegetation Classification; (3) "empirical" types resulted from unsupervised clustering of tree species information. We assessed the degree to which analog classes occurred among classifications, compared indicator species values, and used random forest models to determine how well the classifications could be predicted using environmental variables.

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“…Forest dynamics are strongly affected by climate [1][2][3][4][5][6] and, as climate continues to change, impacts on forests are likely to be profound [7,8]. The forests of the Sierra Nevada in California are exposed to a Mediterranean climate, with little or no precipitation during summer (June through September) [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Severe droughts can lead to declines in tree growth and elevated mortality [24][25][26][27][28][29]. Because tree species often respond in distinct ways to climate, climate change is likely to shift patterns of relative abundance within forests [4,6,26,[30][31][32][33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Impacts on Tree Growth in the Sierra Nevada

Aubry‐Kientz

Moran

2017

Forests

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Rising temperatures and aridity may negatively impact tree growth, and therefore ecosystem services like carbon sequestration. In the Sierra Nevada in California, annual variation in precipitation is high, and forests have already been impacted by several recent severe droughts. In this study, we used growth census data from long-term plots in the Sierra Nevada to calibrate an annual climate-dependent growth model. Our results highlight a high diversity of responses to climate, although the effects of climate are small compared to those of tree size and competition. Some species grow less during dry years (Pinus contorta and Calocedrus decurrens) but, surprisingly, other species exhibit higher growth during dry years (Pinus monticola, Abies magnifica, Pinus jeffreyi, Quercus kelloggii). These results emphasize the need for growth models to take into account species variability, as well as spatial heterogeneity, when studying mixed conifer forests. So far, temperatures have increased in California, and tree growth of some species may drastically decrease in the Sierra Nevada if warming continues, leading to changes in forest structure and composition as well as potential changes in wood production and carbon sequestration.

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Divergence of species responses to climate change

Abstract: Traits determine species responses to climate change, as most eastern U.S. trees shift westward following moisture change.

Cited by 330 publications

References 47 publications

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Classifying forest inventory data into species-based forest community types at broad extents: exploring tradeoffs among supervised and unsupervised approaches

Climate Impacts on Tree Growth in the Sierra Nevada

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