Divergent Responses of Summer Precipitation in China to 1.5°C Global Warming in Transient and Stabilized Scenarios

Jiang, Zhihong; Hou, Qiyao; Li, Tim; Liang, Yao-Yun; Li, Laurent

doi:10.1029/2020ef001832

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…As shown in Figure S1 in Supporting Information S1, for CESM‐LEN, the response pattern of LDDH characteristics is generally consistent with that from CMIP multimodels (Figures 3 and 5), although CESM‐LEN shows a less intense increase in LDDH frequency and magnitude over southern China (such as Tibetan Plateau and South China) compared to CMIP models. This aligns with previous studies (He et al., 2019; Jiang et al., 2021) showing that the response of extreme events to global warming in CESM‐LEN is similar to that of the CMIP5 multimodel mean.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The adverse is found in southeastern China, where the increase in LDDH count and magnitude is stronger in the stabilized scenario than the transient one. Similar behaviors have been found for summer precipitation and wet extremes, which show a more pronounced increase over southeastern China under the stabilized scenario compared with the transient one (Jiang et al., 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Further research is needed to understand the physical mechanisms for the different responses in transient and stabilized warmer worlds. The changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound hot and dry events might be related to changes in large‐scale circulation (including the changes in East Asian summer monsoon), sea surface temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and related processes such as land‐atmosphere interactions (S. Chen & Yuan, 2021; Jiang et al., 2021; Sarhadi et al., 2018; Seo & Ha, 2022; Yuan et al., 2019). It should be noted that the stabilized response is analyzed based on the single model CESM, which cannot account for multimodel variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Substantial Differences in Compound Long‐Duration Dry and Hot Events Over China Between Transient and Stabilized Warmer Worlds at 1.5°C Global Warming

Yang

Tang

2023

Earth's Future

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Persistent hot and dry conditions could lead to serious impacts on society, economy, and human health. Using statistically downscaled and bias corrected data, we investigate the changes in compound long‐duration dry and hot (LDDH) events and the corresponding socioeconomic exposure over China in transient and stabilized warmer worlds. The transient response is identified with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 models, while the stabilized response is identified with the Community Earth System Model ensemble. Under 1.5°C and 2°C warming, the LDDH events in China will become more frequent and hotter. Substantial differences are found in LDDH features between transient and stabilized warming. For a given global temperature, the increase in frequency and temperature magnitude of LDDH events over most northern regions is significantly greater in a transient case than in a stabilized climate, while the increase over the southeastern China is substantially stronger under stabilized warming than transient warming. Future population exposure to LDDH events is projected to increase over China. For many regions, the aggregate exposure is two times greater in a transient climate than in a stabilized climate. Under transient warming, changes in LDDH events dominate the increase in population exposure whereas population change has smaller effects below 10%. For a stabilized warmer world, the negative population growth can largely offset the impact of climate change on exposure. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C can reduce the exposure to LDDH events by 26.1% and 21.8% over China under transient and stabilized warming, respectively.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Substantial Differences in Compound Long‐Duration Dry and Hot Events Over China Between Transient and Stabilized Warmer Worlds at 1.5°C Global Warming

Yang

Tang

2023

Earth's Future

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“…Many studies used GCM simulations derived from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) under Representative Concentration Pathways or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to examine the climate change in the transient 1.5 and 2 °C warmer GMST 9 – 11 . As the increase in GMST to 1.5 and 2 °C presents transiently in these simulations, CMIP GCMs cannot deal with the climate change under stabilized 1.5 and 2 °C global warming 9 , 12 – 14 , limiting the knowledge of the stabilized 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. To fill the gap, a set of ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) were produced under three low-warming scenarios in line with the Paris targets, including the stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C global warming 12 , which are widely used in many studies 15 – 17 .…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias-corrected NESM3 global dataset for dynamical downscaling under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios

Zhang,

Han,

et al. 2024

Sci Data

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Dynamical downscaling is vital for generating finer-scale climate projections. Recently, a set of simulations under four types of 1.5/2 °C global warming scenarios are available with Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). However, NESM3’s bias in large-scale driving variables would degrade downscaled simulations. We corrected NESM3 bias in terms of climate mean and inter-annual variance against ERA5 using a novel bias correction method and then produced a set of bias-corrected datasets for dynamical downscaling. The bias-corrected NESM3 spans the historical period for 1979–2014 and four future scenarios (i.e., 1.5 °C overshoot for 2070–2100, stabilized 1.5/2 °C for 2070–2100, and transient 2 °C for 2031–2061) with 1.25° × 1.25° horizontal resolution at six-hourly intervals. Our evaluation suggests that bias-corrected NESM3 outperforms the original NESM3 in the climatological mean of seasonal mean and variability, as well as climate extreme events during the historical period. This bias-corrected dataset is expected to generate more reliable projections for regional climate and environment under 1.5/2 °C global warming.

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“…As for the location, Seo et al (2013) showed that the multi-model ensemble-mean (MME) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 experiments of CMIP5 exhibited little meridional shift of EASM precipitation from the late twentieth century to the late twenty-first century. Possible future changes of the EASM are also investigated by many other studies (e.g., Li et al 2011;Freychet et al 2015;Chen and Bordoni 2016;Chen et al 2020;Zhou et al 2020;Jiang et al 2021;Endo et al 2021). A review is presented by Kitoh (2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

2022

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Many studies have suggested that mean precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) will be increased by the ongoing global warming, but its quantitative projection by climate models has large variability, with some models suggesting even decreases. We investigate the inter-model variability of projected centennial changes of the EASM separately for Baiu over Japan, Meiyu over eastern China, and Changma over Korea by using monthly-mean model outputs provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. Results with the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are consolidated by normalizing with the global-mean near-surface air temperature changes. For all the three EASM land regions, inter-model differences in the mean precipitation changes are positively correlated with the southerly moisture flux changes to the south of the regions. The correlation is highest in June among the June-to-August months, whose reason may be because precipitation in early summer relies on large-scale southerly moisture transport. These changes are localized and nearly independent among the three regions where Baiu, Meiyu and Changma occur. The low-level southerly change to the south of Japan, which affects the Baiu precipitation change, is positively correlated with upper-tropospheric meridional wind to its north; it further exhibits a stationary Rossby-wave feature associated with the Silk-Road teleconnection. This study suggests that future changes in the EASM mean precipitation depend on circulation changes and more-or-less localized.

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Divergent Responses of Summer Precipitation in China to 1.5°C Global Warming in Transient and Stabilized Scenarios

Cited by 12 publications

References 44 publications

Substantial Differences in Compound Long‐Duration Dry and Hot Events Over China Between Transient and Stabilized Warmer Worlds at 1.5°C Global Warming

Substantial Differences in Compound Long‐Duration Dry and Hot Events Over China Between Transient and Stabilized Warmer Worlds at 1.5°C Global Warming

Bias-corrected NESM3 global dataset for dynamical downscaling under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios

Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

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