2019
DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz028
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Diversification Through Trade*

Abstract: A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the… Show more

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Cited by 139 publications
(82 citation statements)
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“…We clarify the conditions under which the conventional view does not apply. A similar effect has recently been observed by Caselli et al (2015) in the international trade context as well. Openness to international trade can lower GDP volatility when countryspecific shocks are the most important source of volatility.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 84%
“…We clarify the conditions under which the conventional view does not apply. A similar effect has recently been observed by Caselli et al (2015) in the international trade context as well. Openness to international trade can lower GDP volatility when countryspecific shocks are the most important source of volatility.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 84%
“…As in Herrendorf et al (2015) and many others, 7 country i's agricultural production function in year t is described by a Cobb-Douglas production function subject to constant returns to scale (CRS): 8 Previous articles employ various factors as inputs in addition to capital stock, employment, and land area. For example, Coelli and Rao (2005) include fertilizers and livestock as inputs in the agricultural production function.…”
Section: A the Methods Estimating Agricultural Tfpmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example,Caselli et al (2015) show that diversified sources of imports and export destinations reduce a country's income volatility 4 Amiti and Konings (2007). analyze the firm-level data from Indonesia.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The result for 175 countries from 1950 to 2002 was consistent with the postulation: higher effect of external risk on volatility but less support for openness. Similarly, Caselli et al (2015) distinguished sector-and country-specific shocks after considering the existing argument on the volatility-increasing role of trade openness. According to their assessment, trade openness could reduce growth volatility if the main source of shock comes from the country-specific one.…”
Section: Empirical Evidence On Openness and Growth Volatility Relatiomentioning
confidence: 99%