Divide and conquer? Persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts

Jesse, Marieke; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.01.032

Cited by 21 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The effect of spatial structure is related to the combined effects of reduced subpopulation sizes and asynchrony between subpopulations. As in [58], [59], we indeed find that plague extinction takes longer for an intermediate force of coupling, , between subpopulations. Interestingly, the extinction-recolonization dynamics we observe happen to have about the same tempo as chronic re-emergences that have been recorded in some plague foci, such as the Kazakh focus, where epizootics last two to five years and occur every two to eight years [60].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

et al. 2013

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Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

et al. 2013

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“…This is sometimes termed the “island model” (Hess, ). Like networks, spatially explicit metapopulations can be conceptualized in the form of an interaction matrix, with defined rules about local‐ and long‐distance interactions (Jesse & Heesterbeek, ; Jesse et al., ) (Figure ). An alternative form of the metapopulation model is the Levins model where patches are not represented individually, but are classified solely in terms of their infection status (Levins, ).…”

Section: Overview Of Types Of Dynamic Spatial Models Used To Model Wmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

White

Forester

Craft

2017

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

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“…In theory, barriers can influence disease spread and persistence in the following ways. Barriers influence the connectivity between subpopulations in a metapopulation, and hence will influence the persistence of the disease, and also the speed and direction of disease spread [41,42]. The permeability of the barriers, i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia

Wilschut

Addink

Heesterbeek

et al. 2013

International Journal of Health Geographics

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BackgroundPlague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap.MethodsThree 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed – the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) – to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric.ResultsThe burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and barriers showed a mostly NWSE alignment, suggesting easier spreading along this axis. This was confirmed by the analysis of the plague data.ConclusionsPlague spread had a predominantly NWSE direction, which is likely due to the NWSE alignment of corridors and barriers in the burrow distribution and the landscape. This finding may improve predictions of plague in the future and emphasizes the importance of including landscape analysis in wildlife disease studies.

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Divide and conquer? Persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts

Cited by 21 publications

References 40 publications

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia

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