Do anti-poverty policies sway voters? Evidence from a meta-analysis of Conditional Cash Transfers

Abstract

Since the 1990s, many governments in middle and low-income countries have used conditional cash transfers to alleviate poverty. However, the evidence of the electoral consequences of this type of anti-poverty intervention remains inconclusive. Do voters reward politicians when they implement conditional cash transfers? This study conducts a meta-analysis using a sample of 10 randomized controlled trials and regression discontinuity designs (35 estimates from six countries in Latin America and Asia) to address this question. The result shows a positive effect of conditional cash transfers on voter support for the incumbents and no evidence of publication bias in the selected sample. Estimated effect sizes tend to be larger in observational studies, unpublished manuscripts, and articles published in political science. These results provide more conclusive evidence that poor voters also respond to non-clientelistic strategies of electoral targeting in developing countries.

Aid and Radicalization: The Case of Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza

“…It is also associated with a change of -0.175 pp in the probability of supporting no one (column 5). For comparison, in a meta-analysis of the literature on the electoral effect of cash transfers, the average effect size of being eligible for a cash transfer program was an increase of 12 pp in the support for incumbent parties (Araújo, 2021), which in our study's terms will probably be a 0.12 pp change for a one pp increase in the share of households eligible. This effect size is similar in magnitude to our results.…”

“…There is considerable evidence that incumbents have successfully used aid programs, such as conditional cash transfers, to increase their support. 8 A meta-analysis of ten studies of conditional cash transfers from six countries also supports this result (Araújo, 2021).…”

“…Fatah was in power in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip but this changed in 2007 when Fatah lost control of the Gaza Strip to Hamas. Adopting an approach similar to that used in the literature on voting and cash transfers (Araújo, 2021), we assume that Palestinians associate the aid from PNA agencies with the faction currently in power, 27 but that this is not the case for aid from charities and other sources. To test our hypothesis, we add a set of interaction terms between the aid variables and an indicator equal to one for observations in the Gaza Strip in 2007 and later, and to zero otherwise.…”

Does receiving a basic income encourage citizens to turn out to vote? Evidence from mayoral and general elections in Brazil

“…A basic income program may also create incentives for voters showing up to vote to defend a public policy with a direct impact on earnings. While conditional anti-poverty schemes can also create such a mobilization effect (Araújo, 2021), they are often focused on targeted populations and tend to be more vulnerable to economic shocks and political instability (Diaz-Cayeros, Estévez and Magaloni, 2016). They also face more opposition from those who help finance the program without directly enjoying its benefits (Corrêa and Cheibub, 2016).…”

Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil

“…Moreover, conditional cash transfers and remittances increase incumbents' approval rates and improve their reelection chances in developing countries (Zucco, 2013;Tertytchnaya et al, 2018;Araújo, 2021). Besides, welfare state benefits reduce the appeal of far-right and anti-establishment parties in Europe (Vlandas and Halikiopoulou, 2021).…”