Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland

Abstract

We study the interplay of non-pharmaceutical containment measures, human behavior, and the spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland. First, we collect sub-national data and construct indices that capture the stringency of containment measures at the cantonal level. Second, we use a vector autoregressive model to analyze feedback effects between our variables of interest via structural impulse responses. Our results suggest that increases in the stringency of containment measures lead to a significant reduction in weekly infections as well as debit card transactions, which serve as a proxy for behavioral changes in the population. Furthermore, analyzing different policy measures individually shows that business closures, recommendations to work from home, and restrictions on gatherings have been particularly effective in containing the spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland. Finally, our findings indicate a sizeable voluntary reduction in debit card transactions in response to a positive infection shock.

The stringency of the containment measures in response to COVID-19 inversely correlates with the overall disease occurrence over the epidemic wave

“…The protective effect of containment measures was also deonstrated by Pleninger et al (35) who used cantonal-level data for specifi c phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. These investigators showed that increases in the stringency of containment measures signifi cantly reduced public mobility and the number of weekly infections in the population.…”

“…These investigators showed that increases in the stringency of containment measures signifi cantly reduced public mobility and the number of weekly infections in the population. In addition, Pleninger et al (35) identifi ed business closures, recommendations to work from home, and restrictions on public gatherings as particularly effective containment measures in Switzerland (35). Similarly, Famiglietti et al (36) reported for the US states in the pre-vaccine period up to January 2021 that increasing stringency of containment by approximately one standard deviation of its variation across US states reduced COVID-19 deaths by approximately 75 % (36).…”

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020 - May 2021)

“…Regarding the effectiveness of NPIs in particular elds of activity, in Switzerland, business closures, recommendations to work from home and restrictions on gatherings were particularly effective (31). In 7 European countries (10), the highest effect was found for closing non-essential business, which decreased COVID-19 transmission by 35%, including night clubs, restaurants, retail and close-contact services and, to a smaller extent, closing leisure and entertainment venues (theatres, museums and zoos) which only contributed 3% of the total effect).…”

Association of Different Restriction Levels With COVID-19-Related Distress and Mental Health in Somatic Inpatients: A Secondary Analysis of Swiss General Hospital Data

“…We used the Oxford Stringency Index (ranging from 0 to 100) for Switzerland, provided by the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF; Swiss Economic Institute) ( 27 ) to divide the study into two periods. This index is based on nine indicators including school/workplace closing, cancellation of public events, restrictions on gatherings, closure of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, restriction on internal movement, international travel controls, and public information campaigns ( 27 ).…”

“…We used the Oxford Stringency Index (ranging from 0 to 100) for Switzerland, provided by the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF; Swiss Economic Institute) ( 27 ) to divide the study into two periods. This index is based on nine indicators including school/workplace closing, cancellation of public events, restrictions on gatherings, closure of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, restriction on internal movement, international travel controls, and public information campaigns ( 27 ). We determined the time point when the Swiss government added again COVID-19 restrictions after a period with modest restrictions to distinguish between a period with modest and a period with strong COVID-19 restrictions, October 19, 2020.…”