Do crop price expectations matter? An analysis of groundwater pumping decisions in Western Kansas

Sukcharoen, Kunlapath; Golden, Bill B.; Vestal, Mallory K.; Guerrero, Bridget L.

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106021

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Groundwater level decline of the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlying western Kansas has been extensively analyzed with most efforts focused on irrigation related to one of four domains: (1) physical (e.g., climatic and atmospheric factors and underlying geology; Edwards, 2016; MardanDoost et al., 2019; Whittemore et al., 2016), (2) agricultural (e.g., crop type, irrigation limits and management, cover crops, and irrigation efficiency; Butler et al., 2016; Kisekka et al., 2017; Pfeiffer & Lin, 2014), (3) socioeconomic (e.g., environmental policies, energy costs, irrigation efficiency, global markets, and crop prices; Hrozencik et al., 2017; Sanderson et al., 2017; Sukcharoen et al., 2020), or (4) an integrated approach among the first three categories (e.g., Haacker et al., 2019; Majumdar et al., 2020; Smidt et al., 2016). While these studies provide a comprehensive overview of the complexity of factors that drive irrigation use, little is known about the relationship between these factors across both space and time relative to irrigation pumping.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Irrigation Drivers Using Boosted Regression Trees: Kansas High Plains

Lamb

Haacker

Smidt

2021

Water Resources Research

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The relative influence of drivers to irrigation pumping in western Kansas are modeled from 2006-2016 using boosted regression trees.• Site-specific factors are more influential than regional policies, and weather-related factors are more influential at longer timescales. • Irrigation decision-making largely follows resource availability and operation cost considerations over localized management schemes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Irrigation Drivers Using Boosted Regression Trees: Kansas High Plains

Lamb

Haacker

Smidt

2021

Water Resources Research

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“…The estimated results suggested that producers of northwest Kansas adjust the quantity of groundwater pumped in response to changes in precipitation for various irrigated crops. However, there was no statistically significant relationship found between crop price expectations and groundwater pumping decisions [10].…”

Section: Spatial and Temporal Analysis In Agriculturementioning

confidence: 82%

“…The variables included in this study are total and irrigated harvested cropland area and number of farms for each selected crop. Census data were chosen for analysis because it presents a nearly complete, county-level enumeration of crop production data in the U.S. making it possible to examine spatial variations between countries over multiple time periods [10].…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Economic Analysis of Corn and Wheat Production in the Texas High Plains

Naher,

Almas,

Guerrero

et al. 2023

Water

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The aim of this study is to visualize the historical changes in wheat and corn cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains from the perspective of geographical concentration and spatial autocorrelation. Historical county-level agricultural census data were collected from the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service from 1978 to 2017. Exploratory data analysis techniques were employed to examine the geographical concentration and spatial dependence of crop production among nearby locations. The results of temporal changes indicate that the harvested acres of corn and wheat tended to decrease throughout the study period. Total and irrigated harvested corn and wheat acreages were concentrated in a smaller number of counties over time while wheat production was mainly concentrated in the northern part of the region. The Moran’s I test statistic for total and irrigated areas of cropland suggest that there was spatial dependence among the neighboring counties in crop production in this region. In summary, there was a spatiotemporal change in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains over the study period. Based on the results of the spatiotemporal changes in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains, policy makers should promote and support non-irrigated varieties of crops in order to decrease the dependence on irrigation water from the Ogallala Aquifer.

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“…Our choice of functional form for the irrigation response function depends on the way we model producers’ decision making, and it is limited by the scope of the experiment where our data comes from. While some studies assume that crop prices influence irrigation decisions (Mullen et al 2009; Manning et al 2018; among others), there is some evidence that producers decide how much to irrigate independent of crop price expectations (Sukcharoen et al 2020). We proceed with two functional forms representing both types of producers.…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Economics of deficit irrigation utilizing soil moisture probes in the western corn belt

O’Donnell¹,

Nogueira

Walters

et al. 2023

Agric. Resour. Econom. Rev.

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Effective irrigation management is critical for future food supplies and the prosperity of producers engaged in irrigation production. Through a deficit irrigation field experiment, we determine the financial impact on producers caused by changing irrigation costs, corn prices, extreme weather events, and restricting irrigation levels. Results suggest that the optimal economic strategy within our constrained optimization model is to fully irrigate, with the economic impact highly dependent on commodity prices, restriction level, and irrigation costs. The greatest economic losses caused by irrigation restrictions come from decreases in yield. Some simulations resulted in negative profits, indicating that a switch to alternative crops requiring less irrigation may be warranted.

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Do crop price expectations matter? An analysis of groundwater pumping decisions in Western Kansas

Cited by 5 publications

References 17 publications

Influence of Irrigation Drivers Using Boosted Regression Trees: Kansas High Plains

Influence of Irrigation Drivers Using Boosted Regression Trees: Kansas High Plains

Spatiotemporal Economic Analysis of Corn and Wheat Production in the Texas High Plains

Economics of deficit irrigation utilizing soil moisture probes in the western corn belt

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