Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?

Warren, John Robert; Luo, Liying; Halpern-Manners, Andrew; Raymo, James M.; Palloni, Alberto

doi:10.1086/681962

Cited by 86 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 84 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although we cannot be certain about the “true” number of latent trajectories, descriptive statistics (see Table 3) and geographical maps (see Figures 2 and 3) of our five classes correspond to the known ethnic distribution in Dutch cities. The uncertainty around the true number of latent trajectories is especially problematic when trajectories are used as dependent or independent variables in subsequent analyses (Warren et al, ). The goal of the present study is however mainly descriptive, and although we cannot be certain about the true number of trajectories, four‐ and six‐class models showed similar trajectories over time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

Zwiers

Ham

Manley

2017

Population Space and Place

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Western cities are increasingly ethnically diverse, and in most cities, the share of the population belonging to an ethnic minority is growing. Studies analysing changing ethnic geographies often limit their analysis to changes in ethnic concentrations in neighbourhoods between 2 points in time. Such a temporally limited approach limits our understanding of pathways of ethnic neighbourhood change and of the underlying factors contributing to change. This paper analyses full trajectories of neighbourhood change in the 4 largest cities in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2013. Our modelling strategy categorises neighbourhoods based on their unique growth trajectories of the ethnic population composition, providing insight in processes of ethnic segregation and its drivers. Our main conclusion is that the ethnic composition in neighbourhoods remains relatively stable over time.We however find evidence for a slow trend towards deconcentration of ethnic minorities and increased population mixing in most neighbourhoods. Spatial mixing appears to be driven by the selective mobility patterns of the native Dutch population as a result of urban restructuring programmes. However, these pathways towards deconcentration are mitigated by processes of ethnic natural growth that reinforce existing patterns of segregation. Despite an increasing inflow of the native Dutch into ethnic concentration neighbourhoods, segregation at the top and bottom ends of the distribution seems to be persistent: High concentrations of ethnic minorities in disadvantaged neighbourhoods versus high concentrations of the native population in more affluent neighbourhoods continue to be a feature of Dutch cities.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

Zwiers

Ham

Manley

2017

Population Space and Place

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Problems introduced by the transformation aside, some evidence suggests that even when using the correct specification, growth mixture models can underestimate the correct number of classes (Warren et al 2015). Our robustness check mitigates some concerns related to correctly identifying the true number of latent trajectories.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Robustness to the Number of Trajectories Warren et al (2015) warn of overstating the certainty with which one asserts to have identified the correct number of classes from growth mixture models. We determined that the model contained 11 trajectories based on three factors: a substantial decline in the rate of BIC improvement, a statistically significant LMR-LRT value, and a high entropy score.…”

Section: Zone Of Increasing Integration: Growing Suburban Diversitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fragmented Evolution of Racial Integration since the Civil Rights Movement

Bader¹,

Warkentien²

2016

SocScience

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:We argue that existing studies underestimate the degree to which racial change leads to residential segregation in post-Civil Rights American neighborhoods. This is because previous studies only measure the presence of racial groups in neighborhoods, not the degree of integration among those groups. As a result, those studies do not detect gradual racial succession that ends in racially segregated neighborhoods. We demonstrate how a new approach based on growth mixture models can be used to identify patterns of racial change that distinguish between durable integration and gradual racial succession. We use this approach to identify common trajectories of neighborhood racial change among blacks, whites, Latinos, and Asians from 1970 to 2010 in the New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston metropolitan areas. We show that many nominally integrated neighborhoods have experienced gradual succession. For blacks, this succession has caused the gradual concentric diffusion of the ghetto; in contrast, Latino and Asian growth has dispersed throughout both cities and suburbs in the metropolitan areas. Durable integration has come about largely in the suburbs.

show abstract

“…As with nonparametric models that suffer from the “curse of dimensionality,” researchers should consider these tradeoffs when deciding whether to use multichannel sequence analysis. Finally, we acknowledge criticism on the use of sequence analysis (and other similar methods) in revealing “true” underlying trajectory types (Warren, Luo, Halpern‐Manners, Raymo, & Palloni, ). Warren et al () found that different methods for modeling age‐graded trajectories may yield slightly different results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, we acknowledge criticism on the use of sequence analysis (and other similar methods) in revealing “true” underlying trajectory types (Warren, Luo, Halpern‐Manners, Raymo, & Palloni, ). Warren et al () found that different methods for modeling age‐graded trajectories may yield slightly different results. As highlighted previously, however, some trajectory models may not be easily estimable with high‐resolution data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood: Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity Differences in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort

Zhang

Ang

2020

J of Marriage and Family

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objective The objective of this study was to describe the patterns of union transition in emerging adulthood for the 1980 to 1984 cohort and examine its associations with socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity. Background Research on diverging destinies of cohabitation and marriage tends to focus on singular transitions rather than entire individual trajectories composed of dimensions such as timing, order, duration, and number of transitions. Method Drawing on monthly prospective data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, social sequence analysis was used to classify union transition trajectories from ages 16 to 30. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the probability of membership in each cluster. Results The findings showed the following six key clusters of trajectories: mostly single (37.6%), some cohabiting (13.8%), serial cohabiting (10.6%), early 20s marriage (11.4%), late 20s marriage (22.5%), and turbulent (4.1%). We found that young adults were most likely to be in the “mostly single” cluster, regardless of socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity. Individuals with college degrees tended to marry in their late 20s, whereas individuals without college degrees were more likely to be in “serial cohabiting” and “turbulent” clusters. Individuals who lived with neither of their biological parents were more likely to belong to “early 20s marriage” and “turbulent” clusters when compared with those who lived with at least one of their biological parents. Blacks were more likely to remain single, whereas non‐Hispanic Whites were more likely to marry sometime in their 20s. Conclusion Evidence for diverging trajectories exists in this recent cohort, but we also find that most young adults in fact stay single. We also highlight the benefits of considering multiple aspects of trajectories concurrently, especially as relationship instability and complexity increase.

show abstract

Do Different Methods for Modeling Age-Graded Trajectories Yield Consistent and Valid Results?

Cited by 86 publications

References 84 publications

Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

Trajectories of ethnic neighbourhood change: Spatial patterns of increasing ethnic diversity

The Fragmented Evolution of Racial Integration since the Civil Rights Movement

Trajectories of Union Transition in Emerging Adulthood: Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity Differences in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About