“…While the general deterrence effect of punishment seems to be well established with observational (Goel & Rich, 1989) as well as with experimental data (Boly & Gillanders, 2018;Hanna, Bishop, Nadel, Scheffler, & Durlacher, 2011;Nagin, 2013), the interplay between the effects of increasing its severity and probability is less clear. Although Nagin (2013) argues that the probability of punishment 3 and not the severity of punishment serves as a deterrent, findings from laboratory studies in general suggest that the severity of punishment has the stronger deterrent effect (Friesen, 2012;Laske et al, 2018). One reason for the stronger effect of severity of punishment is that it is easier to evaluate fines than absolute probabilities.…”