Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence from the Netherlands

Husby, Trond; Groot, H.L.F. de; Hofkes, M.W.; Dröes, Martijn I.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2338451

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…These findings suggest the existence of short-term negative effects on economic activity, with a quick recovery to pre-disaster levels. This is along the lines of the "recovery to trend" hypothesis, also observed in the recent cross-regional literature reported in Elliott et al (2015), Husby et al (2014), Tanaka (2015) and Xiao et al (2013).…”

Section: Direct Effects Of the 2008 Flash Floodsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Regarding the direct effects of the 2008 Santa Catarina flash flood on GDP, we start with a standard municipal-level fixed-effects model that calculates the difference between the GDP before and after the flash flood for treated and untreated municipalities. This strategy, widely used in all areas of empirical economics, has recently been used to measure the economic impact of unanticipated natural disasters on a regional perspective by Husby et al (2014) andTanaka (2015). Our basic specification is given by the following equation:…”

Section: Direct Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Natural disasters, economic growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from a flash flood in Brazil

Lima

Barbosa

2019

Papers in Regional Science

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In this paper, a flash flood that occurred in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina in 2008 is used to investigate the existence of spatial spillovers from natural disasters in geographically‐linked areas. In order to do so, we estimated a Difference‐in‐Differences model that explicitly allows for the existence of spatial interactions within affected and unaffected regions. Our results show that municipalities directly affected by the flood suffered an 7.6% decrease in GDP per capita in the year of the disaster. Three years after the flood, however, GDP per capita rebounded back to pre‐disaster levels in all sectors but the Agricultural sector. Finally, our spatial estimations show that spillovers exist and are economically relevant.

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Section: Direct Effects Of the 2008 Flash Floodsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Direct Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural disasters, economic growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from a flash flood in Brazil

Lima

Barbosa

2019

Papers in Regional Science

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“…Some studies argue that hazard reduction possibly inadvertently leads to an increase in exposure. For example, Husby et al (2014) suggest that the wide-reaching dike building programmes in the Netherlands led to an increased concentration of population in areas potentially inundated in case of a flood. This phenomenon is referred to as the levee effect (Tobin 1995) or the safe development paradox (Burby 2006).…”

Section: Concepts and Terminologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

Husby

Koks

2017

Nat Hazards

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Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are inputoutput (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis.

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“…Existing research primarily focuses on flood risk as an undesirable outcome of low elevation (Scawthorn, Iemura, and Yamada 1982;Shilling, Sirmans, and Benjamin 1989). Recent work on similar topics features significantly more advanced methods such as the combining of spatial methods with hedonic housing data (Bin et al 2011) or with dynamic models (Husby et al 2014). While not featuring elevation as a primary investigative target, Kok, Monkkonen, and Quigley (2014) find evidence of elevation effects in San Francisco land value.…”

Section: Prior Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Z-Axis: Elevation Gradient Effects in Urban America

Becker

2016

SSRN Journal

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Abstract1 This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of hilliness effects in American urban communities. Using data from seventeen cities, robust relationships are established between elevation patterns and density and income gradients. We find that high-income households display strong preference for high-altitude, high-unevenness locations, leading to spatial income stratification at both the city and tract-level. We further analyze potential causes of this propensity: micro-climate, crime, congestion, view effects, and use of public transit. We conclude that the role of elevation in urban systems should not be neglected. Multi-dimensional spatial methods are crucial to investigations of cities with substantial unevenness. Redistributive social and economic policies must struggle with a fundamental, topographical dimension to inequality. JEL: J10, R11, R12

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Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence from the Netherlands

Cited by 7 publications

References 29 publications

Natural disasters, economic growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from a flash flood in Brazil

Natural disasters, economic growth and spatial spillovers: Evidence from a flash flood in Brazil

Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

The Z-Axis: Elevation Gradient Effects in Urban America

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