Do Foreclosures Increase Crime?

Goodstein, Ryan; Lee, Yan Y.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1670842

Cited by 36 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…It also implies that more less-advantaged neighborhoods will exceed the thresholds at which foreclosures start to create more crime nearby (Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2011). This lends further testimony to the mounting evidence concenring the unfairly distributed toll imposed by the United States' latest dalliance with weakly regulated financial markets (Immergluck and Smith 2006a, b;Kingsley, Price and Smith 2009;Harding, Rosenblatt and Yao 2009;Cui 2010;Goodstein and Lee 2010;Katz, Wallace and Hedburg 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…In some weak-market cases, vacant properties may be stripped of their resalable components, yielding a structure so badly damaged that there is no financially feasible recourse but to abandon it (Galster, Cutsinger and Malega, 2008). More foreclosed properties, in turn, will likely increase the number of crimes nearby (Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2011;Immergluck and Smith 2006b;Harding, Rosenblatt and Yao 2009;Cui 2010;Goodstein and Lee 2010;Katz, Wallace and Hedburg 2011). Falling disposable incomes of individual households coupled with falling population densities may lead to the closing and/or moving "downmarket" of the local retail sector serving the effected neighborhood.…”

Section: The Urban Geography Of Disparate Impacts: a Conceptual Framementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Disparate Neighborhood Impacts of the Great Recession: Evidence from Chicago

2013

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We advance scholarship about how macroeconomic forces differentially manifest themselves across local spaces by developing a holistic conceptual framework and empirical analyses involving multilevel change modeling. Unlike prior work, we examine differential rates of change in neighborhood indicators. We illustrate our approach with Chicago data measuring the crime, housing, and economic domains of neighborhood qualityof-life over the 2000-2009 period. We find that the local dynamic manifestations of macroeconomic cycles were far more nuanced than have been previously observed. Neighborhood indicators moved along distinct trajectories, sometimes but not necessarily tracking each other or the overall business cycle, and they changed with varied intensities. The Great Recession of 2006-2009 had disparate negative impacts on lower-income and minority-occupied neighborhoods' local job opportunities, home prices, and home foreclosures, though this was not true for credit or crime indicators. Credit indicators performed geographically much differently than in the prior Chicago recession.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: The Urban Geography Of Disparate Impacts: a Conceptual Framementioning

confidence: 99%

The Disparate Neighborhood Impacts of the Great Recession: Evidence from Chicago

2013

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“…The path-breaking efforts of Immergluck and Smith (2006b) led to a host of recent, increasingly sophisticated econometric studies of this phenomenon. Goodstein and Lee (2010) analyzed a U.S.-wide panel of annual county data from 2002-2007, employing instrumental variables to deal with potential endogeneity bias and fixed-effects to deal with unobserved heterogeneity. They found that counties with a one percentage pointhigher annual rate of foreclosures would be expected to have a 10% higher annual burglary rate in the following year, all else equal.…”

Section: Foreclosures Crime and Neighborhood Dynamics: Past Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indirectly, visible disrepair and physical disorder around foreclosed properties can signal to potential lawbreakers an erosion of social control and collective efficacy in the neighborhood (Skogan 1990). Both directly and indirectly, foreclosures likely spur crime because of perceived-lower chances of apprehension on the part of potential criminals (Goodstein and Lee 2010;Ellen, …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Home Foreclosures and Neighborhood Crime Dynamics

2013

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We advance scholarship related to home foreclosures and neighborhood crime by employing Granger causality tests and multilevel growth modeling with annual data from Chicago neighborhoods over the 1998-2009 period. We find that completed foreclosures temporally lead property crime and not vice versa. More completed foreclosures during a year both increase the level of property crime and slow its decline subsequently. This relationship is strongest in higher-income, predominantly renter-occupied neighborhoods, contrary to the conventional wisdom. We did not find unambiguous, unidirectional causation in the case of violent crime and when filed foreclosures were analyzed.

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“…However, given that this work is done using a single cross-section of Census tract-level data the authors cannot speak to the issue of causation vs. correlation. Using county-level longitudinal data, Goodstein and Lee (2010) conclude that foreclosure increases burglary and some other property crime. While this study overcomes the cross-sectional limitations of the work by Immergluck and Smith, the aggregation of their data to such a large geographic scope greatly hinders the insight that can be gained on neighborhood processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%