Do Leader Evaluations (De)Mobilize Voter Turnout? Lessons From Presidential Elections in the United States

Abstract

Do evaluations of presidential candidates in the US affect the level of voter turnout? Voters’ affections towards presidential candidates, we contend, can either stimulate or inhibit voter inclinations to turnout. Voters are more inclined to turn out when they have positive feelings towards the candidate with which they identify because they want “their” candidate to win. But citizens may also be more likely to vote when they dislike the candidate of the party with which they do not identify. In that case, voters are motivated to prevent the candidate from being elected. Utilizing the American National Election Studies data for 1968–2020, the analysis finds that the likelihood of voting is affected by (a) the degree to which voters’ affections towards the candidate differ from one another (having a clear‐cut choice between options) and (b) the nature of the affections (negative or positive) towards both in‐ and out‐party candidates.

For a Research Agenda on Negative Politics

“…Finally, turning to dynamics of candidate perceptions, personality, and emotions, Maier et al (2022) offer one of the very first insights into the "dark" personality of politicians that relies on self-ratings from candidates running for German state elections-opening up an exciting new research agenda that tackles the nefarious nature of politicians' character via what candidates themselves say about their own profile. Harsgor and Nevitte (2022) investigate whether evaluations of presidential candidates drive turnout in American elections. Using long-term survey data , the authors show that turnout is affected by the differences in affect between the main competing candidates, and the nature of such affect.…”