Do methane emissions converge? Evidence from global panel data on production- and consumption-based emissions

Abstract

Methane emissions are the second most important contributor to global warming. Knowledge about the dynamics of methane emissions facilitates the formulation of climate policies and the understanding of their consequences. We investigate whether methane emissions released from production and embodied in consumption converge within and across regions. Our estimates rely on global panel data on methane per capita and methane intensities over 1997–2014. We find that emissions converge within countries. The short half-lives show that the emissions of countries are close to their steady states. There is no evidence for international convergence of aggregate emissions. Yet, convergence of emissions across regions occurs in a number of economic sectors. Our results highlight the difficulties to achieve methane abatement in the medium run. The formulation of climate policies should take into account the sectoral specificity of the dynamics of methane emissions.

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