Do Natural Disasters Have Long-Term Effects on Growth?

Jaramillo, Christian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1543453

Cited by 46 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Some researchs (47,48) suggest that natural disasters have a positive influence on long-term economic growth, probably thanks to both the stimulus effect of reconstruction and the productivity effect (the embodiment of higher productivity technologies thanks to capital replacement; see Hallegatte and Dumas (49) ). Others (50)(51)(52)(53)(54) suggest exactly the opposite conclusion, that is, that the overall impact on growth is negative. As suggested by Cavallo and Noy (55) and Loayza et al, (56) the difference between both conclusions may arise from different impacts from small and large disasters, the latter having a negative impact on growth while the former enhance growth.…”

Section: Total Amount Of Direct Lossesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters

2013

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Estimates of the cost of potential disasters, including indirect economic consequences, are an important input in the design of risk management strategies. The adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) inventory model is a tool to assess indirect disaster losses and to analyze their drivers. It is based on an input-output structure, but it also (i) explicitly represents production bottlenecks and input scarcity and (ii) introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. This modeling strategy distinguishes between (i) essential supplies that cannot be stocked (e.g., electricity, water) and whose scarcity can paralyze all economic activity; (ii) essential supplies that can be stocked at least temporarily (e.g., steel, chemicals), whose scarcity creates problems only over the medium term; and (iii) supplies that are not essential in the production process, whose scarcity is problematic only over the long run and are therefore easy to replace with imports. The model is applied to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and identifies two periods in the disaster aftermath: (1) the first year, during which production bottlenecks are responsible for large output losses; (2) the rest of the reconstruction period, during which bottlenecks are inexistent and output losses lower. This analysis also suggests important research questions and policy options to mitigate disaster-related output losses.

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Section: Total Amount Of Direct Lossesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters

2013

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“…This difference is most likely due to the greater amount of resources spent on prevention efforts and legal enforcement of mitigation rules (e.g., building codes). In particular, some of the policy interventions likely to ameliorate disaster impact, including land-use planning, building codes and engineering interventions, are rare in less developed countries (see, for example, Freeman et al, 2003, andJaramillo, 2009). …”

Section: Determinants Of Initial Disaster Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey

2009

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractNatural disasters are by no means new, yet the evolving understanding of their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. This paper summarizes the state of the economic literature examining the aggregate impact of disasters. The paper reviews the main disaster data sources available, discusses the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguishes between shortand long-run indirect effects. The paper then examines some of the relevant policy questions and follows up with projections about the likelihood of future disasters. The paper ends by identifying several significant gaps in the literature.JEL Classification: O11, O40, Q54

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“…A set of papers also include various measures of institutional detail (e.g., democracy versus others). See the works of Skidmore and Toya (2002), Toya and Skidmore (2007), Kahn (2005) and Jaramillo (2009) for the indications on some positive effects on growth. Papers that report negative effects on the economy include Cavallo et al (2010), Auffret (2003), and Benson and Clay (2004).…”

Section: Comments On Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

On the Social Cost of Water-Related Disasters

Johansson

Kriström

2015

Water Econs. Policy

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This paper is devoted to some important welfare economic issues related to natural disasters, in particular those connected with floods and storms. Our analysis of the social cost of a natural disaster is different from (most) existing analyses, in that we focus sharply on the welfare effects of a disaster. We derive a simple dynamic general equilibrium costbenefit rule, which captures loss in production of private and public goods, as well as the value of (statistical) lives lost; it also clarifies the role played by changes in stocks and flows, respectively. Standard analysis of losses typically only includes damages to marketpriced stocks and flows, thus our model paints a different picture of social cost. This difference is particularly striking for disaster that results in many deaths, but has relatively low (reported) costs. We take our model to the data by using EM-DAT, one of the several prominent databases in this literature, focusing on water-related disasters in the US.

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Do Natural Disasters Have Long-Term Effects on Growth?

Cited by 46 publications

References 21 publications

Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters

Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters

The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey

On the Social Cost of Water-Related Disasters

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