Do not bet on your favourite football team: the influence of fan identity-based biases and sport context knowledge on game prediction accuracy

Na, Sangwon; Su, Yiran; Kunkel, Thilo

doi:10.1080/16184742.2018.1530689

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…There is evidence that individuals tend to under-predict significantly the draw outcome of football matches, which is consistent with the psychological concept of splitting, or 'black and white' thinking (e.g. Na et al, 2018). Second, there is an empirical irregularity in some prediction markets known as the favourite-longshot bias, whereby odds appear to underestimate the chances of the most (least) expected outcomes over the least (most), making bets on favourites more profitable than on longshots or vice versa (see summary by Ottaviani and Sørensen, 2008).…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 61%

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Elaad

Reade

Singleton

2020

Finance Research Letters

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We contribute to the discussion on betting market efficiency by studying the odds (or prices) set by fifty-one online bookmakers, for the result outcomes in over 16,000 association football matches in England since 2010. Adapting a methodology typically used to evaluate forecast efficiency, we test the Efficient Market Hypothesis in this context. We find odds are generally not biased when compared against actual match outcomes, both in terms of favourite-longshot or outcome types. But individual bookmakers are not efficient. Their own odds do not appear to use fully the information contained in their competitors' odds.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 61%

Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

Elaad

Reade

Singleton

2020

Finance Research Letters

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“…Based on the findings of this research, organizations can target consumers that are focused on reaping extrinsic rewards. Like individuals who bet (e.g., Na et al, 2019), organizations can target these consumers through promotions that promise a high return on time and money invested. Providing options to win prizes, such as merchandise or company products, or launching crypto tokens are possible motivating factors that may attract and maintain engagement within the app.…”

Section: Practical Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gamification via mobile applications: A longitudinal examination of its impact on attitudinal loyalty and behavior toward a core service

Kunkel

Lock

Doyle

2021

Psychology and Marketing

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Organizations increasingly use gamification to engage with, and influence, consumers’ attitudes and behaviors. In this article, we present findings from a longitudinal, mixed‐method research design that (1) examined the extent to which game design elements created by a third‐party app lead to increased attitudinal loyalty toward core service providers and (2) sought to explain the underlying processes that invoke attitudinal change. Behavioral data collected from app users indicated that knowledge‐focused affordances positively influenced consumer loyalty and explained 11.3% of the variance in attitudinal change. Follow‐up interviews revealed that Rewards, Competition, Sense of Achievement, and Gaining Knowledge were representative of consumers’ motives for using the app, and Engagement and Identity explained how using the gamified application influenced users’ attitudinal loyalty toward the core service. Overall, we contribute to knowledge about how gamified affordances can be used to add value to consumer experiences, both in relation to the gamified consumption experiences, and the focal brand that is serviced by a third‐party app.

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“…This would suggest that the market participants are biased toward a win outcome and away from the draw, which would be consistent with a 'splitting' bias, or 'black and white thinking'. The significant tendency of individuals to under-predict draws in football matches has been documented before by Na et al (2019) in an experimental setting.…”

Section: Are Market Prices Efficient Just Before a Match Kicks Off ?mentioning

confidence: 68%