Do opportunistic snap elections affect political trust? Evidence from a natural experiment

Abstract

Snap elections, those triggered by incumbents in advance of their original date in the electoral calendar, are a common feature of parliamentary democracies. In this paper, I ask: do snap elections influence citizens' trust in the government? Theoretically, I argue that providing citizens with an additional means of endorsing or rejecting the incumbent -giving voters a chance to 'have their say' -can be interpreted by citizens as normatively desirable and demonstrative of the incumbent's desire to legitimise their agenda by (re)-invigorating their political mandate. Leveraging the quasi-experimental setting provided by the coincidental timing of the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May's, shock announcement of early elections in April 2017 with the fieldwork for the Eurobarometer survey, I demonstrate that the announcement of snap elections had a sizeable and significant positive effect on political trust. This trust-inducing effect is at odds with the observed electoral consequences of the 2017 snap elections. Whilst incumbent-triggered elections can facilitate net gains for the sitting government, May's 2017 gamble cost the Conservative Party their majority. Snap elections did increase political trust. These trust-inducing effects were not observed symmetrically for all citizens. Whilst Eurosceptics and voters on the right of the ideological spectrum -those most inclined to support the incumbent May-led Conservative government in 2017 -became more trusting, no such changes in trust were observed amongst left-wing or non-Eurosceptic respondents. This study advances the understanding of a relatively understudied yet not uncommon political phenomenon, providing causal evidence that snap elections have implications for political trust.

Facebook Campaigning in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

“…Indeed, the Canadian election is distinctive in its pattern the re-election of leaders, which results in an accumulating advantage for Trudeau. Citizens did not punish Trudeau for the snap election (Blais et al, 2004;Turnball-Dugarte, 2023). In addition, his party owned the key election issue (pandemic policy).…”

“…Furthermore, studies in Canada suggest that voters rarely punish the prime minister for calling a snap election (Blais et al, 2004). A citizen's reaction to the snap election may depend on whether they share the ideological position of the governing party calling the snap election (Blais et al, 2004;Turnball-Dugarte, 2023). To the extent that Facebook user engagement is based on supporters, we expect user engagement patterns to continue to support Trudeau's popularity.…”