Do Political Elites Have Accurate Perceptions of Social Conditions?

Abstract

Politicians often oppose economic policies benefiting low-income Americans. However, the mechanisms behind this political inequality are unclear. I ask whether politicians oppose these policies, in part, because they underestimate how many of those they govern are struggling financially. I test this theory with an original survey of 1,265 state legislative candidates. Contrary to my expectations, I find that politicians tend to overestimate how many of those they govern are struggling financially. At the same time, there are some instances in which politicians—and Republicans in particular—do underestimate the level of financial hardship among those they govern. In an experiment, I randomly assign politicians to have their misperceptions corrected. The results suggest that politicians' policy preferences would be similar even if they had a more accurate understanding of reality. Overall, the findings suggest that politicians may frequently misperceive the state of reality in which those they govern live.

Information Processing in Participatory Governance

“…A broad array of research has highlighted that politicians and policymakers often lack information not only on public preferences (e.g. Broockman andSkovron 2018, Pereira 2021) but also on public needs (Mansuri and Rao 2012, Thal 2023, Jablonski and Seim 2023.…”

Misrepresentation and migration

“…There is a substantial body of literature arguing to what extent voters do (or do not) have a correct understanding of the state of the world and to what extent voters favor policies that might not be in their own (long-term) interests (Caplan, 2001(Caplan, , 2002Key, 1966;Lupia, 1994). Less attention has been paid to political elites and the extent to which they are subject to a biased understanding of policy outcomes and the living conditions of their voters (Lee, 2022;Silva & Wratil, 2023;Thal, 2023). As politicians have more time and resources to acquire information and have incentives to do so, they should, according to the model of representative democracy, be better informed than their voters.…”