Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

Abstract

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.

Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large-Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami

“…These include studies of hurricanes in the United States (Fussell, Sastry, and VanLandingham 2010; Groen and Polivka 2008), droughts in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Mexico (Gray and Mueller 2012a; Henry, Schoumaker, and Beauchemin 2004; Nawrotzki, Riosmena, and Hunter 2012), earthquakes in El Salvador (Halliday 2006; Yang 2008), and flooding in Bangladesh (Gray and Mueller 2012b). While these studies and our research combine survey data with multivariate methods, prior research does not have the richness of before-and-after surveys conducted on a large, population-representative sample in areas affected by the natural disaster and comparable areas not directly affected.…”

Might climate change the “healthy migrant” effect?

“…Patterns of Mexico-US migration have already been linked to climate change – one study estimates that by 2080, 1.4 to 6.7 million Mexicans will migrate to the United States due to the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity (Feng et al 2012). Other research finds greater international migration during times of low rainfall for rural communities in historically dry parts of Mexico (Nawrotzki et al 2013) and greater environmentally-associated migration from regions with well-established migration-networks (Hunter et al 2013). If climate change yields pressure on less healthy individuals to migrate, the need for migrant-sensitive health systems and services may be intensified in destination regions.…”

“…Connections with migration have been demonstrated in that rainfall shortage is associated with international migration, particularly from rural areas with strong migration networks (Hunter, Murray and Riosmena 2013; Nawrotzki, Hunter et al 2015; Nawrotzki, Riosmena and Hunter 2013; Nawrotzki, Riosmena et al 2015). In addition, migration from drought-stricken regions is highest 2–3 years following substantial decline in rainfall, suggesting migration as shorter-term adaptation to environmental stress (Nawrotzki and DeWaard 2016).…”

Agricultural productivity, household poverty and migration in the Indian Sundarban Delta

“…Although earlier studies investigated the linkages between climate change, crop yield, migration, and the rural-urban wage differentials in other geographical locations with different geographical contexts (Feng et al 2010, Marchiori et al 2012, and Nawrotzki et al 2012, there is limited research investigating the connections between poverty, productivity and migration in Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). ISD has limited access to resources, livelihoods, services, and infrastructure.…”