Do sunk costs affect expert decision making? Evidence from the within-game usage of NFL running backs

Keefer, Quinn A. W.

doi:10.1007/s00181-017-1399-y

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…We begin with results from Simmons and Berri (2009) who found that running backs are compensated based on rushing yards (Yds), rather than attempts or yards per attempt. We supplement the pay-rushing yards link with additional research results from Keefer (2019) and Simmons and Berri (2009), which leads us to begin with the following equation that estimates the compensation of running backs ln($ %& ) = ) % + 0.00069 × 012 %&34 + 5 %& 6 7 + 8 %& (1) where x controls for other personal and team characteristics. The estimated average rate of return to rushing yards is 0.069%, or an additional 100 rushing yards during the course of a season increases compensation in the subsequent year by 6.9% (Keefer 2019).…”

Section: Risky Effort and Its Economic Consequences In The Short-runmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-yard increase in YAC/Game the average expected rate of return, where the average number of games played is 13.99, is then 5.6%, as Because the parameters are all either regression coefficients or sample averages, all parameters can be simulated using normal distributions. We simulate the average rate of return 10,000 times based on the following distributions, where the parameters of the distribution for the effect of yards on compensation are taken fromKeefer (2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Keefer (2019) estimated the rate of return to rushing yards using fixed-effects regression to eliminate omitted variable bias from individual heterogeneity, such as talent. The rate of return to an additional 100 rushing yards of 6.9% is extremely close to the rate of return estimated inSimmons and Berri (2009) using median regression of 6.6%.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Running the Risk of an Injury in the NFL: Short-Run and Career Consequences

Keefer

Kniesner

2019

SSRN Journal

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Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world's largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

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Section: Risky Effort and Its Economic Consequences In The Short-runmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Running the Risk of an Injury in the NFL: Short-Run and Career Consequences

Keefer

Kniesner

2019

SSRN Journal

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“…Managerial turnover increased both provisions for loan losses and write offs (Staw et al, 1997). Due to the high stakes and abundance and reliability of data, professional sports have become a focus of sunk-cost fallacy research (Borland et al, 2011;Camerer & Weber, 1999;Hackinger, 2019;Hinton & Sun, 2020;Keefer, 2015Keefer, , 2017Keefer, , 2019aKeefer, , 2019bLeeds et al, 2015;Staw & Hoang, 1995).…”

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confidence: 99%

Did the 2011 Change to NFL Rookie Compensation Alter How Sunk Costs Affect Utilization?

Keefer

2020

Journal of Sports Economics

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The 2011 NFL collective bargaining agreement introduced significant changes to rookie compensation, including a rookie wage scale. We test if the new rules changed how sunk costs affect utilization for drafted rookies. Our regression discontinuity results show a robust sunk-cost fallacy that is similar in magnitude to the one documented under the previous agreement. Second-round selections play significantly less than their first-round counterparts, as measured by percentage of games started, total snaps played, and percentage of snaps played. However, the effect is not evident beyond the rookie season. Additional results show coaching success and coaching changes are important factors.

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“…Because the parameters are all either regression coefficients or sample averages, all parameters can be simulated using normal distributions. We simulate the average rate of return 10,000 times based on the following distributions, where the parameters of the distribution for the effect of yards on compensation are taken fromKeefer (2019).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%