Do the Static-99 and Static-99R Perform Similarly for White, Black, and Latino Sexual Offenders?

Abstract

The Static-99 is the most widely used sex offender risk assessment measure in the world, but predictive effects for the Static-99 have been relatively low in several U.S. samples, particularly in states with high levels of racial or ethnic diversity. The current study uses data from one of the largest predictive validity studies of Static-99 in the U.S. to examine whether Static-99 and Static-99R scores predict recidivism similarly for White (n = 912), Black (n = 411), and Latino (n = 588) offenders. Although predictive effects with both measures were, at times, large enough to reach statistical significance for White and Black offenders, they were never large enough to reach significance for Latino offenders. On the Static-99R, the measure recommended for use in practice, AUC values ranged from .62 to .69 (d = .43 to .71) for Black offenders, .59 to .65 (d = .33 to .56) for White offenders, but only .56 to .58 (d = .17 to .33) for Latino offenders. Findings have implications for fairness in testing and highlight the need for continued research regarding the potentially moderating role of offender race/ethnicity in risk research.

Utility of the Static-99 and Static-99R With Latino Sex Offenders

“…Low sexual offense recidivism rates have also been reported for Latino sex offenders by Varela et al (2013) and Hanson, Lunetta et al (2014). Moreover, we found that U.S.-born/Puerto Rican and other Latin American sex offenders (i.e., non-U.S.-born) in our sample did not differ significantly from one another with regard to their respective sexual recidivism rates.…”

“…However, our findings were consistent with, but slightly lower than, other studies involving Latino sex offenders in Texas (Varela et al, 2013) and California (Hanson, Lunetta et al, 2014). The scores we obtained for our sample could be influenced by a number of factors.…”

“…Långström (2004) reported that the Static-99 performed no better than chance in predicting sexual or violent recidivism among African/Asian sexual offenders in Sweden. Varela and colleagues (2013) were the first to assess the cross-cultural validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R among U.S. ethnic minority sex offenders using a large sample ( N = 1,911) from Texas. Despite having large sample size, they found the recidivism rates for African Americans and Latinos to be rather low (less than 3.2%).…”

Cross-Cultural Validity of Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals in North America with a History of Sexual Offending: Static-99R and Static-2002R

“…and Hispanic, n = 588; Varela et al, 2013). They found poor to moderate discrimination of Static-99/R for violent sexual recidivism (i.e., any contact sexual offense) across different ethnic groups (AUCs of .57 for Hispanics, .59 for Whites, and .65 for Blacks) and no significant differences among the ethnic groups.…”

“…They found poor to moderate discrimination for violent sexual recidivism (i.e., any contact sexual offence) across different ethnic groups (AUCs of .57 for Hispanics, .59 for Whites, and .65 for Blacks) and no significant differences among the ethnic groups. No calibration analyses were performed (see Varela, Boccaccini, Murrie, Caperton, & Gonzalez, 2013). Hanson, Lunetta, Phenix, Neeley, and Epperson (2014) reported good predictive validity with 475 sex offenders under the parole system in California (AUC of .82 [.72, .92]) and overall good and similar discrimination across all ethnic groups (e.g., White, Black, and Hispanic; AUCs >.74).…”