Do you need cobalt ore? Estimating potential trade relations through link prediction

L, Sen; Dong, Zhiliang; Ding, Chengri; Wang, Tian; Zhang, Yichi

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101632

Cited by 29 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Currently, link prediction methods have been applied by some scholars to discuss international trade by transforming trade relations into networks. The effectiveness of the algorithm is confirmed by existing trade relations [16][17][18][19]. Sida Feng et al uses the link prediction method to forecast nature trade relations in the oil trade [17], and Sen Liu et al uses the preferential attachment algorithm to explore the international nickel ore trade rules behind existing trade relations [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade

et al. 2021

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Nickel ore sand and its concentrate are the main sources of raw nickel materials in various countries. Due to its uneven distribution throughout the world, the international trade of nickel ore sand is also unstable. Looking for potential links in the changing international nickel ore trade can help governments find potential partners, make strategic preparations in advance, and quickly find new partners when original trade relationships break down. In this paper, we build an international nickel ore trade network using a link prediction method to find potential trade relations between countries. The results show that China and Italy, China and Denmark, China and Indonesia, and China and India are most likely to establish trade relations within five years. Finally, according to the research results, suggestions regarding the international nickel ore trade are proposed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade

et al. 2021

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“…In addition, some scholars have also studied the flow of cobalt using a trade-related material flow model and found that the supply and demand of cobalt have seen rapid growth, with the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United States, China, and Japan being the major powers in the cobalt trade network (Cullen and Allwood, 2013;Sun et al, 2019). Other studies have used a link predictive analysis model, combined with trade networks, to forecast the international trade relationship of cobalt (Liu et al, 2020). The results show reduced trade stability of cobalt and forecast the next three and 5 years for the countries most likely to trade cobalt ore.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…At the same time, cobalt is also an important raw material. Due to the rapid development of new energy electric vehicles, the battery industry has become cobalt's most important consumption field (Liu et al, 2020). With the rapid development of strategic emerging industries and the transformation of some clean energy sources, fuel vehicles have gradually shifted to electric vehicles, and the economic value, as well as the demand for cobalt, has multiplied (Campbell, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on key cobalt technologies based on patent analysis

Hua

Dai

2023

Front. Energy Res.

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Based on global cobalt technology patents, this paper uses patent data mining and co-occurrence methods to identify technology application trends, key technology areas, key technology layouts, and technology roadmap. According to the development trend, the development of co-cobalt technology is divided into slow and rapid development stages. The conclusion are: 1) In terms of key technologies, E35-V (Cobalt compound) is the long-term R&D focus in the field of cobalt, and X16-B01F1 (Lithium-based) is the most important key technology area at present. 2) China, Japan, the United States, and South Korea are the main contributors to key cobalt technologies, mainly focusing on the R&D layout of L03-E01B5B (Lithium electrode) technology in the field of X16-B01F1 (Lithium-based). 3) Regarding the cooperation relationship between patent applicants, cooperation between groups is relatively close, cooperation between different countries is less, and transnational cooperation is mainly concentrated in developed countries, among which the United States has the most transnational partners. 4) In the field of cobalt’s most important electrode material technology LG Chemical Co., Ltd. (Korea) and Sumitomo Metal Mining Corporation (Japan) are the two companies with clear technology lines, while Univ Cent South (China) has a late technology development. Finally, we make suggestions for the development of cobalt technology: focus on core technology for R&D and innovation, actively study the technology status and innovation mode of leading companies, and strengthen the cooperation among different R&D institutions.

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“…Gradually, link prediction is widely used in the exploration of citation networks [36], cooperation networks [37], traffic networks [38], and social networks [39]. In recent years, Guan et al [40], Feng et al [41], Liu and Dong [42,43], Zhang et al [44], and Yang et al [45] applied link prediction algorithms to explore the rules for the formation of trade relations in international mineral trade networks. The studies of the above scholars indicate that these algorithms are effective in finding potential trade link relationships, but they are all concerned with undirected prediction and do not incorporate trade direction information into the prediction research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the Potential Trade Relationship of Lithium-Ion Battery’s Main Element Raw Material Minerals Combined with the Local Characteristics of the Trade Network

Zhang

Dong

Liu

et al. 2023

International Journal of Energy Research

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In recent years, with the rapid development of the lithium-ion battery industry, the massive upstream consumption of mineral raw materials has led to great crises and challenges in balancing global supply and demand. A diversity of trading partners can effectively alleviate the pressure of supply and demand for raw materials; so, it is particularly important for trading countries to find suitable trading partners. This study takes nine important minerals contained in the main element raw materials of lithium-ion batteries as the research object, and the international trade data range from 2011 to 2020. The study combines complex networks and motifs and links prediction methods to predict the potential international trade relations of the nine minerals based on the actual network topology. We summarize three trade link rules as follows. (1) The predicted links have a timeliness requirement, and they generally turn into actual trade links within 3 years. (2) When looking for trading partners, trading countries tend to establish long-term and stable trade relations. (3) The existing trade relations will promote the establishment of predicted trade relations. In addition, we find that successfully predicted links will promote the formation of important motifs in the network. This study can provide a theoretical basis for trading countries to find suitable trading partners and can strengthen the safety of trading countries in the trade of the main element minerals for lithium-ion batteries.

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Do you need cobalt ore? Estimating potential trade relations through link prediction

Cited by 29 publications

References 26 publications

Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade

Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade

Research on key cobalt technologies based on patent analysis

Prediction of the Potential Trade Relationship of Lithium-Ion Battery’s Main Element Raw Material Minerals Combined with the Local Characteristics of the Trade Network

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