Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case

Abstract

Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential.

Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania

“…On one hand, a lower harvest rate would be preferable for forest-land carbon sink enhancement. On the other hand, it could be a solution for the short term only, since old forest stands have lower GHG removal potential due to their lower yield [57] or might even become a GHG source in the future. Therefore, the newest updates in the rules (EU Regulation 2023/839) [5], maintaining no specific accounting categories or reference values since 2026 and setting an overall GHG removal goal for the LULUCF sector for the first time, seems to be more beneficial for Lithuania.…”

Adaptive Relationships in Hemi-Boreal Forests: Tree Species Responses to Competition, Stress, and Disturbance

“…Lithuania’s current forest ecosystems have become simplified in both their patterns and processes due to forest management intensification. Moreover, a diverse spectrum of forest vegetation communities is at risk of being lost due to widespread even-aged clearcutting practices, i.e., maximum sustained yield [ 24 ], and early age harvesting [ 2 ]. Subsequent re-establishment practices of deep mechanical scarification and planting of singular tree species continue to place increased pressure on Lithuania’s hemi-boreal forests as functionally integrated complex adaptive dynamical systems [ 1 , 25 ].…”

“…Lithuania's current forest ecosystems have become simplified in both their patterns and processes due to forest management intensification. Moreover, a diverse spectrum of forest vegetation communities is at risk of being lost due to widespread even-aged clearcutting practices, i.e., maximum sustained yield [24], and early age harvesting [2].…”

Quantitative Techniques for Sustainable Decision Making in Forest-to-Lumber Supply Chain: A Systematic Review

“…Ref. [45] used forest simulation models (Kupolis simulator) and decision support tools to model the development and use of Lithuanian forest resources under different scenarios, estimate the total carbon balance in Lithuanian forests, and assess the potential of Lithuanian forests to absorb carbon. They evaluated variables such as standing volume, area-weighted average age, net annual increment of wood volume, volume of wood harvested annually, and total area of forest stands belonging to a specific age class.…”