Does climatic risk induce labour migration? Evidence from Semi‐Arid Tropics region of India

Abstract

The paper aims to focus on climatic risk as a potential determinant of temporary labour migration in Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT) village in India for the year 2013-2014. Specifically, we address the question of how households use temporary labour migration as a coping mechanism to minimise the risk posed by climate variables such as drought, floods, cyclone etc. In doing so, the paper uses a binary choice model (logistic regression) to examine the potential socioeconomic and demographic factors along with climatic risk that determine the probability of migration of workers in select Indian semi-arid villages. The paper uses data from International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The results show that among all climatic risk anomalies, maximum households in SAT villages are affected by drought risk. It is accounted that 69% of households are influenced by the drought risk. With respect to compensation of climatic risk, around 17% of non-migrant households received government support, while only 9% of migrant households received such assistance in this study. Also, the logistic regression models predict that the probability of household having any temporary migrants is significantly determined by climatic risk along with other demographic and socio-economic factors. To the best of the authors' knowledge, perhaps this is the first paper that makes a direct approach of linking climatic risk with temporary labour migration in semi-arid tropics region of India.

Drought and temporary migration in rural India: A comparative study across different socio-economic groups with a cross-sectional nationally representative dataset

“…Again both the studies did not find any statistical association between flood (“excess precipitation”) and migration. A similar finding also has come up from another study [ 29 ] which with the exploration of ICRISAT cross-sectional data of 2013–14 found that climatic risks (which was reported to be heavily related to drought) brings an increase in the probability of migration in semi-arid parts of India. Real and futuristic migration intentions data may produce somewhat contradictory associations with drought as one study [ 54 ] employing perceived increased severity of drought and future migration intentions, has reported a negative association between the two.…”

“…The association between drought and human migration has been studied in many regions around the world including Brazil [15], Canada [16,17], China [18], Ethiopia [19,20], Kenya [21], Mali [22,23], Nepal [24], Northern Latin America and the Caribbean [25], Syria [26], United States of America [27] etc. In India, a few studies have found a positive association between drought and migration by analysing Census of India and International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) datasets [28][29][30]. This association between drought and migration is also evidenced in a few field based studies spread across different parts of India like Karnataka [31], Odisha [32][33][34], Tamil Nadu [35], West Bengal [36,37], Hindu Kush-Himalayas [38] etc.…”

Socio-Economic Problems of Agricultural Laborers in Punjab (Pakistan)

“…Furthermore, industrial development also depends on the agriculture sector because 60 per cent of industrial establishments in Pakistan are agro-based. This sector also provides raw materials for domestic industries like rugs, carpets, sugar, leather, footwear and food products (Pradhan et al, 2022). Agriculture laborers play a crucial role in providing food, reducing hunger and national development, but unfortunately, the socioeconomic condition of these laborers is deplorable.…”