Background: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) during hospitalisation and potentially post-discharge.
Aims:To determine the incidence and risk factors for post-discharge VTE in IBD patients and create a point of care predictive model to assess VTE risk.
Methods:Hospitalised IBD patients were identified from our institutional discharge database between 2009 and 2016, and were assessed for VTE by chart review. Risk factors for VTE within 3 months of discharge were determined by univariable and multivariable logistic regression. A point of care model was created using variables from the univariate analysis with P < 0.05, and internally validated by bootstrap methods.Results: Sixty-six of 2161 eligible discharges (3%) were associated with VTE within 6 months of hospitalisation. The median time to event was 37 days (range 3-182 days).On multivariable analysis age >45 years (OR 3.76; 95% CI 1.80-7.89) and multiple admissions (OR 2.62; 95% CI 1.34-5.11) were independently associated with VTE risk. Our final model incorporated age >45 years, multiple admissions, intensive care unit admission, length of admission >7 days and central catheter and was able to discriminate between discharges associated with and without VTE (optimism-corrected c-statistic, 0.70; 95% CI 0.58-0.77). By limiting treatment to a high-risk group, extended thromboprophylaxis could be avoided in 92% of discharges with a miss rate of 1.6% (32/1982 discharges).
Conclusion: Patients with IBD remain at risk of VTE after hospital discharge. Our model may help clinicians stratify which patients will benefit most from extended thrombophrophylaxis. Admission characteristics Multiple admissions, n (%) 341 (15.8) LOA, median (IQR) 7 (4-11) Intensive care unit, n (%) 51 (2.36) Admission flare, n (%) 1370 (63.4) MRDx IBD, n (%) 1035 (47.9) Any surgery, n (%) 679 (31.4) Abdominal surgery, n (%) 554 (25.6) Central catheter, n (%) 261 (12.1) Peak CRP, median (IQR) 37.9 (11-91.4) Albumin, median (IQR) 28 (22-38)Abbreviations: CHF, congestive heart failure; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CRP, C reactive protein; IBD, Inflammatory bowel disease; IQR, interquartile range; LOA, length of admission; MRDx, most responsible diagnosis; SD, standard deviation; TNF, tumour necrosis factor; VTE, venous thromboembolism.