Does Direct Democracy Enhance Politicians’ Perceptions of Constituents’ Opinions? Evidence from Switzerland

Helfer, Luzia; Wäspi, Flurina; Varone, Frédéric

doi:10.1111/spsr.12495

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The literature on direct democracy argues that referendums and initiatives are conducive to policy congruence between citizens and their political elites because citizens are supposed to get what they want when they are entitled to partake in policy making (e.g., Gerber, 1996;Matsusaka, 2010). The empirical findings of some scholars substantiate this thesis (Gerber, 1996;Helfer et al, 2021;Matsusaka, 2010). However, other researchers do not find such a positive correlation (Lascher et al, 1996;Lax & Phillips, 2012;Tausanovitch & Warshaw, 2014).…”

Section: How DI R Ect-de Moc R At Ic I Nst I T U T Ions I N T Er Act ...mentioning

confidence: 98%

Likeminded? Congruence Between Political Elites and their Voters Regarding Policy Choices inSwiss‐EURelations

Lauener

2022

Swiss Political Sci Review

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Swiss‐EU relations not only rank among the most important political problems for citizens but are also the subject of repeated political contestation. Using data from the 2019 Swiss Election Study (Selects), this article examines the extent to which the opinions of political elites and voters coincide on four European integration issues: 1) the trade‐off between maintaining the bilateral agreements and limiting immigration, 2) the cohesion billion, 3) the trade‐off between the institutional framework agreement and the accompanying measures, and 4) EU membership. The results show that, overall, candidates represent voters extremely well with regard to positions, i.e., both groups are “on the same side”. However, candidates are generally more EU‐integrationist and hold more extreme opinions than voters. Moreover, this article investigates how well candidates represent the variety of voter opinions and finds that – contrary to previous research – there is no systematic difference between centrist and pole parties.

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Section: How DI R Ect-de Moc R At Ic I Nst I T U T Ions I N T Er Act ...mentioning

confidence: 98%

Likeminded? Congruence Between Political Elites and their Voters Regarding Policy Choices inSwiss‐EURelations

Lauener

2022

Swiss Political Sci Review

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“…For instance, Hedlund and Friesema (1972) find that Iowa politicians were better at predicting referenda results in their constituencies for those issues where turnout was higher, although they only capture politicians' estimations on four issues. Helfer et al (2021) found that Swiss politicians have a better understanding of public opinion on conflictual issues, i.e. issues where there was not an overwhelming majority in favour of or against the proposal.…”

Section: Salience As a Driver Of Perceptual Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient

Butler,

Walgrave,

Soontjens

et al. 2024

Party Politics

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Politicians’ perceptions of public opinion matter for substantive representation, but previous work has concluded that they do not have very accurate perceptions of voters’ policy preferences. We add to the debate on the drivers of perceptual accuracy by exploring whether politicians have a more accurate understanding of public opinion when it matters either to voters or themselves, or when politicians think it matters more to voters. Drawing on survey data collected among elected representatives and citizens in Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, and Germany, we show that politicians have a better understanding of public opinion when they think the issue matters to voters. Further, when an issue is personally important to politicians they more accurately estimate their party supporters’ opinions. The results confirm that politicians hold more accurate perceptions of voters’ preferences when they think it is important to do so, but not necessarily when the issues actually are important to voters.

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“…They present substantial variation in electoral systems as well with Canada exhibiting a majoritarian first-past-the post system, and the three other countries sharing a proportional system (with varying district sizes). Switzerland stands out because of its frequent referendums which may affect perceptual accuracy (see : Helfer, Wäspi, and Varone 2021). Systemic differences can provide politicians with varying incentives to learn about public opinion.…”

Section: What We Know About Politicians' Perceptual Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

Walgrave

Jansen

Sevenans

et al. 2023

The Journal of Politics

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Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens' policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people's preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They not only misperceive the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

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Does Direct Democracy Enhance Politicians’ Perceptions of Constituents’ Opinions? Evidence from Switzerland

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri butio n-NonCo mmerc ial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Cited by 6 publications

References 52 publications

Likeminded? Congruence Between Political Elites and their Voters Regarding Policy Choices inSwiss‐EURelations

Likeminded? Congruence Between Political Elites and their Voters Regarding Policy Choices inSwiss‐EURelations

Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient

Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

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