This study attempts to explore the effect of dividend policy on the stock prices of the companies in Turkey. A balanced panel data set has been formed with 102 companies listed on Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index (XUSIN) for the period 2004-2016. The results of the models used in the study show no statistically significant effect of gross dividend payout ratio, cash dividend payout ratio and their one-year lagged values on stock prices. 1187 dividend policy that will maximize the firm value and will not have any negative effect on the future investment goals and the cash flow of the firm. For this reason, the way that the investors react to dividend distribution is crucial for the managers.Various theories have been put forward regarding the correlation between dividend yields and capital gains as well as the effect of dividend distribution on investor preferences. These theories are fundamentally divided into two main views. The first view holds that the dividend distribution is relevant, while the second view holds that it is not. Miller and Modigliani (1961) were the first to argue in their "Dividend Irrelevance Theory" that dividend policy does not affect the firm value. The Residual Dividend and Clientele Effect theories also suggest that dividend policies do not have an effect on the firm value. On the other hand, as a counterpoint to the dividend irrelevance theory, Bird in Hand theory (Lintner, 1962) constitutes the main theory of dividend relevance, with other theories such as Walter Model (1963), Signalling Theory (Bhattacharya, 1979), Tax Preference Theory (Litzenberger and Ramaswamy, 1979) and the Agency Theory (Rozeff, 1982) supporting it.Although there have been various studies conducted in the finance literature regarding the validity of both theories, no final result has been reached so far. In this studies that have been conducted, the results differ depending on the country that the business is located in, the sector of the business, the period of activity, the investor profile and the conjuncture. These results indicate that Fischer Black's statement (Black, 1976) "The harder we look at the dividend picture, the more it seems like a puzzle, with pieces that just don't fit together" is still valid.As a result of the firm value standing out as the ultimate goal of the companies, the study of the factors which affect the firm value still maintains its importance. In this study, we take stock price as an indicator of the firm value while we analyze the relations between firm value and dividend policy in the Turkish Capital Market.The structure of this paper is as follows: the introduction, the literature review, description of the data and the empirical methodology, findings of the econometric analysis, and the conclusion.
Literature ReviewMany studies have been conducted in the past attempting to explain the relationship between dividend policy and stock prices. There are various studies which support that the dividend earnings have an effect on stock prices.The first study was introduced by M.J. G...