Does Economic Growth Pay Political Dividends in India?

Abstract

Since independence in 1947, India has witnessed several changes in economic policies of governments. Economic reforms were started in India in 1984 and were accelerated later in 1991. It is believed that Bharatiya Janata Party won the 2014 parliamentary elections on the promise of economic development and growth. In this article, an attempt has been made to investigate the link between economic and electoral performances in Indian elections. The data for 1951–2014 period has been analysed by establishing regression equations using vote percentage received by a ruling party as dependent variable and sectoral economic growth during the ruling tenure as independent variables. Comparisons have been made between the pre- and post-1984 eras. An important contribution of this article is that it highlights the fact that electoral performances can be better explained using sectoral growth data as compared to overall GDP growth rates. The article also highlights a significant role played by volatility in growth rates.