Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?

Davis, Christopher A.; Wang, Wei; Dudhia, Jimy; Torn, Ryan D.

doi:10.1175/2010waf2222423.1

Cited by 90 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Concerning the choice of the initialization timing, the recommendations of Davis et al [36] and Xue et al [37] have been taken into account. Davis et al [3] found that there was no meaningful difference between storm position errors in the 12 km and nested higher-resolution forecasts for five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005. However, TC intensity (in terms of the maximum 10 m wind) was somewhat better forecasted on the nested grids than on the single 12 km grid, and the difference was statistically significant at 72 h and beyond.…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fifth approach has been to employ the KF scheme in the outer domain, as one of the reference cumulus schemes for hurricane modelling [3,5], and then none in the inner domain so as to treat convection explicitly in that scale. Such choice arises from some studies [5,16] that underline that grid spacing between 8 and 4 km resolves adequately the TC circulation with explicit convection treatment.…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies [3][4][5][6] have explored the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictive ability sensitivity to its different physical parameterizations, that is, to the effects of varying the computational horizontal and vertical resolutions and the number of domains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Davis et al [3] performed, with Advanced Research Hurricane (AHW) component of WRF model, a very comprehensive study of the effects of increased horizontal resolution on hurricane wind forecasts: they compared the accuracy of hurricane track, intensity, and structure in a set of 69 forecasts performed at each of two horizontal grid increments with the AHW-WRF model. These forecasts covered 10 Atlantic tropical cyclones: 6 from the 2005 season and 4 from 2007.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Marras

Fiori

Rossi

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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The cumulus parameterization is widely recognised as a crucial factor in tropical meteorology: this paper intends to shed further light on the effects of convection parameterization on tropical cyclones’ numerical predictions in the “grey zone” (10–1 km grid spacing). Ten experiments are devised by combining five different convection treatments over the innermost, 5 km grid spacing, domain, and two different global circulation model datasets (IFS and ERA-Interim). All ten experiments are finally analysed and compared to observations provided by the National Hurricane Center’s best track record and multisatellite rainfall measurements. Results manifestly point to the superiority of employing no convective parameterization at the scale of 5 km versus the usage of any of those provided by WRF to reproduce the case study of Hurricane Tomas, which hit the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles in late October and early November 2010.

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Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Marras

Fiori

Rossi

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The simulation was integrated by the Hurricane Group in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is one of a set of model integrations that have been carried out since 2004 [22,23]. The simulation has three nested domains, with horizontal grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.33 km (with 469 × 424, 202 × 202, and 241 × 241 grid points, respectively), each of them with 35 vertical levels and each of them in a two-way nesting configuration.…”

Section: Forcing the 3dvpas Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Applicability of Linear, Axisymmetric Dynamics in Intensifying and Mature Tropical Cyclones

Montgomery

Smith

2017

Fluids

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Abstract:The applicability of linearized axisymmetric dynamics to the intensification and structure change of tropical cyclones is investigated. The study is motivated by recent work that presented axisymmetric solutions to the linearized, non-hydrostatic, vortex-anelastic equations of motion (the so-called 3DVPAS model). The work called into question the importance of a recently proposed nonlinear, system-scale boundary-layer spinup mechanism both in intensifying storms and in mature storms undergoing secondary eyewall formation. The issue is examined using a three-dimensional mesoscale simulation of an intensifying tropical cyclone, alongside the linear 3DVPAS model. Solutions to the linear model, for imposed eddy forcing terms derived from the mesoscale simulation, are shown to be valid only for short times (t < 1 h) in the inner-core region of the vortex. At later times, the neglected nonlinear terms become significant and the linear results invalid. It follows that the linear results cannot be used to describe all aspects of the tropical cyclone dynamics at later times. In particular, they cannot be used (a) to dismiss the importance of the nonlinear boundary-layer spinup mechanism, nor (b) to isolate the separate effects of diabatic heating from those of friction, within the nonlinear boundary layer at least. Such separation depends on the linear superposition principle, which fails whenever nonlinearity is important. Similar caveats apply to the use of another linear model, the traditional Sawyer-Eliassen balance model. Its applicability is limited not only by linearity, but also by its assumption of strictly balanced motion. Both are incompatible with nonlinear spinup.

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Satellite radiance data assimilation for binary tropical cyclone cases over the western North Pacific

Choi

Cha

Lee

et al. 2017

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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A total of three binary tropical cyclone (TC) cases over the Western North Pacific are selected to investigate the effects of satellite radiance data assimilation on analyses and forecasts of binary TCs. Two parallel cycling experiments with a 6 h interval are performed for each binary TC case, and the difference between the two experiments is whether satellite radiance observations are assimilated. Satellite radiance observations are assimilated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA)'s three‐dimensional variational (3D‐Var) system, which includes the observation operator, quality control procedures, and bias correction algorithm for radiance observations. On average, radiance assimilation results in slight improvements of environmental fields and track forecasts of binary TC cases, but the detailed effects vary with the case. When there is no direct interaction between binary TCs, radiance assimilation leads to better depictions of environmental fields, and finally it results in improved track forecasts. However, positive effects of radiance assimilation on track forecasts can be reduced when there exists a direct interaction between binary TCs and intensities/structures of binary TCs are not represented well. An initialization method (e.g., dynamic initialization) combined with radiance assimilation and/or more advanced DA techniques (e.g., hybrid method) can be considered to overcome these limitations.

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Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?

Cited by 90 publications

References 29 publications

Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

On the Applicability of Linear, Axisymmetric Dynamics in Intensifying and Mature Tropical Cyclones

Satellite radiance data assimilation for binary tropical cyclone cases over the western North Pacific

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