Does intra-individual change predict offender recidivism? Searching for the Holy Grail in assessing offender change

Serin, Ralph C.; Lloyd, Caleb D.; Helmus, L. Maaike; Derkzen, Dena; Luong, Duyen

doi:10.1016/j.avb.2012.09.002

Cited by 107 publications

(129 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…One potential explanation is that the factors that cause antisocial behavior may not be the factors responsible for reducing antisocial behavior at an individual level (cf. Serin et al, 2013). It may be that antisocial attitudes are a proxy indicator of more basic neurophysiological factors that are both a risk and causal factors for antisocial behavior (Kraemer et al, 2001).…”

Section: Individual-level Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: In search of mechanisms of change.

Kroner¹,

Yessine²

2013

Law and Human Behavior

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The present study examined whether treatment change among offenders under community supervision would predict reductions in recidivism. The intervention program, based on cognitive-behavioral principles, focused on changing antisocial attitudes. Compared to a matched control group, the likelihood of reduced recidivism was 57% for the binary outcome and 70% for the multiple count outcome, after controlling for past program participation, propensity score, and days of opportunity to offend. The within-person pre-/postchange scores showed less promise in predicting recidivism. Only changes with a single antisocial associate measure, which were not central to the treatment program, predicted future recidivism. Caution must be used in the idiographic assessment of dynamic risk and treatment change.

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Section: Individual-level Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: In search of mechanisms of change.

Kroner¹,

Yessine²

2013

Law and Human Behavior

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“…According to Hildebrand and de Ruiter (2012), dynamic risk factors typically considered to increase susceptibility to violence include egocentricity/narcissism, anger/hostility, impulsivity, lack of insight, and negative distrustful attitudes. Among these, two of the most common risk factors for violence include procriminal attitudes and dysfunctional anger experience and expression (Serin et al, 2013).…”

Section: Measuring Within-treatment Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, since recidivism is a distal outcome, numerous extraneous factors can influence reoffending post-treatment (Jung & Gulayets, 2011). Understanding desistance from violence requires consideration of community variables that affect the returning offender; factors such as employment and social support are central in predicting the ease of community transition and offending following release (Serin, Lloyd, Helmus, Derkzen, & Luong, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Violent Offenders’ Within-Treatment Change in Anger, Criminal Attitudes, and Violence Risk: Associations with Violent Recidivism

Klepfisz

O’Brien

Daffern

2014

International Journal of Forensic Mental Health

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This study aimed to examine the recidivist outcomes for a group of incarcerated violent offenders, based on whether they achieved pre-post raw psychometric change, reliable change, and/or clinically significant change (CSC) following treatment completion. Participants included 42 adult male violent offenders (age range 21 to 67 years) who participated in a medium-or high-intensity, group-based violent offender treatment program offered within prisons, operated by Corrections Victoria. These men were followed in the community for an average of 3.9 years post-release, and were assessed on four risk-related variables pre-and post-treatment: General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Trait Anger (T-Ang), Anger Expression/Out (AX/O), and Overall Violence Risk (OVR). Mean levels of GCT and OVR significantly reduced following treatment; no significant changes in T-Ang and AX/O were observed. Although a small proportion of offenders achieved reliable and/or CSC, within-treatment changes were not predictive of violent recidivism. This article describes, critiques, and tests methods of intra-individual within-treatment change and provides a blueprint for future analyses linking intra-individual change and violent reoffending.

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“…Many widely used structured violence risk assessment instruments comprise well-known dynamic risk factors (e.g., HistoricalClinical-Risk Management-20 version 3, HCR-20 v3 , Douglas, Hart, Webster & Belfrage, 2013;Violence Risk Scale, VRS , Wong & Gordon, 2003) and many of these dynamic risk factors are associated with violent recidivism, thereby satisfying Douglas and Skeem's (2005) first criteria; however, there is (1) little evidence that many of these dynamic risk factors can change in violent offenders (either over time or as a consequence of treatment), and (2) little research that has examined whether changes in dynamic risk factors are associated with reductions in violent re-offending following release from custody (Klepfisz, Daffern & Day, 2015). There is some support for the proposition that intra-individual change in dynamic risk factors is associated with reduced reoffending in prisoners (Serin, Lloyd, Helmus, Derkzen & Luong, 2013), and there is also evidence that reduction in aggregate dynamic risk factors measured using multi-item structured violence risk assessment instruments is associated with reduced violent recidivism in populations with SMI (De Vries Robbé, de Vogel, Douglas & Nijman, 2015;Lewis, Olver & Wong, 2012).…”

Section: Mechanisms Of Change -Dynamic Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of an intensive inpatient violent offender treatment programme on intermediary treatment targets, violence risk and aggressive behaviour in a sample of mentally disordered offenders

Daffern

Simpson

Ainslie

et al. 2017

The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology

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This study examined the impact of an intensive inpatient violent offender treatment programme, Life Minus Violence -Enhanced (LMV-E, Ireland, 2008), on intermediary treatment targets, risk for violence, and aggressive behaviour during treatment in a sample of male mentally disordered offenders. Using quasi-experimental design, offenders who completed LMV-E and a comparison group showed reduced problems with impulsivity and anger regulation and improvements in social problem solving.Aggregate risk for future violence lessened in both treatment and comparison groups, although by a significantly greater degree for the comparison group. The aggressive behaviour of both groups reduced. Completion of the LMV-E conferred additional improvements in some facets of social problem solving and anger regulation. Neither group showed improvements in empathic responses, coping skills or problematic interpersonal style. Overall, these results suggest anger regulation, impulsivity and social problem solving are most amenable to change, that reductions in certain facets of these dynamic risk factors transpires with nonspecific psychiatric inpatient treatment, but that the LMV-E, a cognitive behavioural violence specific psychological treatment, confers greater change in some facets of social problem solving and anger regulation.

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Does intra-individual change predict offender recidivism? Searching for the Holy Grail in assessing offender change

Cited by 107 publications

References 61 publications

Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: In search of mechanisms of change.

Changing risk factors that impact recidivism: In search of mechanisms of change.

Violent Offenders’ Within-Treatment Change in Anger, Criminal Attitudes, and Violence Risk: Associations with Violent Recidivism

The impact of an intensive inpatient violent offender treatment programme on intermediary treatment targets, violence risk and aggressive behaviour in a sample of mentally disordered offenders

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