Does membership of the EMU matter for economic and financial outcomes?

Abstract

This study examines the effects of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) using propensity score matching to address self‐selection bias. Findings indicate that EMU membership leads to reduced volatility in inflation, output growth, and bond yields. However, it also reveals fiscal deterioration in member states during the pre‐financial crisis period, even excluding Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. These countries experienced favorable bond market conditions pre‐crisis. The study underscores varying EMU effectiveness across different periods and countries, emphasizing the importance for policymakers to consider these variations when adopting EMU strategies.