Does Moderation Pay? Centripetalism in Deeply Divided Societies

Abstract

Centripetalism suggests that the best way to achieve political stability in deeply divided societies is to enhance the political rewards of moderation by adopting electoral rules that require winning politicians to seek cross-community support. This paper considers the validity of this position by examining election results in eight deeply divided societies-Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Kenya and Northern Ireland-and argues that rather than consolidating moderation, the outcome is more likely to be increased instability, and even, in some cases, increased extremism.

Consociationalism under examination: Is consociationalism the optimal multiculturalist approach for Turkey?

“…His willingness to form wide coalitions made up of ethno‐regional elites, the military and Islamists enabled him to win the elections (Aspinall, 2010). Yudhoyono's moderate discourses have done much to “move Indonesia away from the ethnic violence that characterized its initial transition to democracy” (McCulloch, 2013, p. 119).…”

“…They may engage in outbidding tactics, for example, accusing moderate parties of betraying or selling out their group causes. For more details, see Horowitz (1985); McCulloch (2013).…”

“…If no candidate has cleared the absolute majority threshold, then, all candidates other than the top two are eliminated and their second‐preference votes are redistributed among the top two candidates, one of whom will then be the 50‐percent‐plus‐one winner. For more details, see McCulloch (2013); Reilly (1997b).…”

The limits of inclusion: Representation of minority and non-dominant communities in consociational and liberal democracies

“…During war-to-peace transitions, decent treatment of the opposition features as the aspiration for the new form of politics in consociations. Once the formerly conflicting groups settle to govern jointly in consociations, the political inclusion of any further segment of citizenry as a ‘relevant’, veto-holding group is often a non-starter (McCulloch, 2013). Instead of jointly reaching out to ‘others’, the majority, now composed of the groups that constitute consociations, defers the inclusion and postpones guaranteed representation of non-dominant ‘others’, just as liberal democracies do with their minorities.…”

Czym jest stabilność polityczna państwa?

“…W kwestii stabilności politycznej Libii, oba wskazane indeksy -ze względu na krótki okres prowadzenia badań -odnoszą się jedynie do niedawnej przeszłości: WGI do lat 1996-2013, a GPI do lat 2007-2014. I tak, opracowane na potrzeby WGI studium (Libya, 1996(Libya, -2013 dowodzi, że w latach 2011-2013 nastąpiło bardzo wyraźne załamanie stabil ności politycznej tego państwa w stosunku do lat poprzednich, co nie może dziwić, gdyż w tym czasie toczyły się w nim działania zbrojne.…”