Does order matter? An empirical analysis of NHL draft decisions

Abstract

Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of order on the quality of outcomes when making sequential decisions and test the widely-held belief that choosing earlier is preferable and results in better outcomes than choosing later. Design/methodology/approach -Quantitative performance from the sequence of athletic decisions made by the teams of the National Hockey League (NHL) at the annual amateur entry draft is longitudinally analyzed using a participation threshold of 160 games. Findings -Analysis indicates that earlier choice does result in outcomes that are significantly and substantially better but that this effect is muted beyond approximately the first 100 decisions, after which there is no discernable advantage.Research limitations/implications -The dichotomous performance measure excludes more qualitative or stratified assessments of performance and does not include context of the individual decision choices. The results may not generalize beyond the National Hockey League or other human resource situations. Practical implications -The research suggests that sequential decision processes are suboptimal in the presence of large amounts of information and choice. Recommendations include reallocating the amount of confirmatory attention spent on highly-ranked candidates. Originality/value -The paper exposes limitations to the widely-held belief that choosing earlier is preferable to choosing later.

You can beat the “market”: Estimating the return on investment for NHL team scouting

“…Many of the critiques of team drafting are that for a given selection a player whose future performance exceeded the current selection was often available. See, for example, Tingling (2011). Given the difficulty with projecting the future performance, it is important to focus on the trends rather than individuals.…”

Incentives to lose revisited: The NHL and its tournament incentives

“…Tingling et al (2011) show that NHL players chosen in the first turn and in the first half of the second turn of the ED are indeed significantly more successful, so choosing earlier rather than later is important for the first two turns. A related study by Berri (2008) for a similar tournament system (NBA) points out that the first draft pick is the best choice.…”

“…Tingling et al (2011) found evidence that the new eligible high quality NHL players were indeed signed by the worst teams. Moreover, Grier and Tollison (1994) presented some empirical evidence that EDs in professional football promote competitive balance and Maxcy (2002) argued that competitive balance also improved with the implementation of the ED in the Major League Baseball.…”

Anchoring bias in the evaluation of basketball players: A closer look at NBA draft decision‐making

“…Researchers mostly analyze the structure as well as the decision‐making within the process or look for inefficiencies from an economic standpoint. Papers on the draft can be found for the NHL (e.g., Deaner et al, 2013; Tingling et al, 2011), the MLB (e.g., Caporale & Collier, 2013; Sims & Addona, 2016), the NFL (e.g., Hendricks et al, 2003; Massey & Thaler, 2013), and the WNBA (e.g., Harris & Berri, 2015; Hendrick, 2016).…”