Does the Aging Population Become a Constraint to the Growth of Turkish Economy? New Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Ecevit, Eyyup; Çetin, Murat; Yildiz, Özge; Dogan, Rabia

doi:10.18070/erciyesiibd.871710

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 58 publications

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“…Hence, the countries need to increase labor force growth rate to balance decline in economic growth caused by ageing population. In a study of Turkey, Ecevit et al (2021) discovered that population aging, and financial development had a negative impact on economic growth, whereas domestic savings and consumption expenditures were positively related to economic growth in the long run. The findings also showed that in the long run, there is bidirectional causality between all the independent variables and economic growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Structure, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Bawazir¹,

Nor²

2023

J. Professional Business Review

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Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the long-run and short-run impact of demographic structure and human capital on the economic growth of Turkey. Theoretical framework: The shift in demographic dividend which witness shifts in age structures, have led to positive prospects, which have resulted in the decline in rate of births leading to a decline in a country’s young dependent group, and subsequently caused an increase in the percentage of the workforce working-age numbers. In the past few decades, there has been a noticeable substantial shift in the population structure with regard to the percentage of the cohort of working age population in Turkey that could have consequences on the economy. Design/Methodology/Approach: The annual time series data of Turkey for the time period 1990 to 2020 was employed through the utilization of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the association between the demographic structure, human capital and economic growth. Findings: The results revealed that variations in the age structure, as manifested by the variations in the age cohorts of the working-age population, possess substantial favorable impacts on economic growth in the short and long run. The research also revealed that human capital impacts on economic growth in a positive way in the short run. Research, practical & social implications: The study revealed that there is a substantial shift in the population fabric in Turkey. The ongoing changes that have transpired relatively rapidly might have significant economic consequences for the country in the future. Hence, it is therefore recommended that Turkey acquire demographic and economic measures which will stimulate the population to be intensively involved in the workforce. This is to garner the gains of demographic and educational returns as a major method towards the attainment of a high level of economic growth. Originality/Value: This study utilizes working age population more broadly than most of the literature, using disaggregated age groups based on age. The key motivation for this is to ascertain the role of each age group, and its effect on economic growth.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%