Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana

Abstract

This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137–0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection. This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions—such as border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation—during the first phase of the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap estimates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid-May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Burkina-Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021: a population-based study

“…To date and since March 2020, two epidemic wave have been noted in Burkina Faso, three in Madagascar, and four in Ghana ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases [ 15 ], accessed on February 14 th 2021) [ 1 ]. The detection of epidemic waves relies on testing consistency [ 16 ]. Extrapolating the seropositivity rate of our study population onto the total population number in the targeted districts of Bobo-Dioulasso and Ouagadougou infers that 352,848 individuals in Bobo-Dioulasso and 579,162 individuals in Ouagadougou had been infected by March 2021.…”

Impact of economic policy uncertainty, energy intensity, technological innovation and R&D on CO2 emissions: evidence from a panel of 18 developed economies

“…For example, the events that have subsequently occasioned the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic from early 2020 to date are an excellent illustration of how policy uncertainty affects the overall society. Globally, several government decisions to impose lockdown measures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of the virus, albeit successful, created significant uncertainty, which ultimately led to a slowdown in the global economy (Deb et al 2021;Frempong et al 2021;Dzator et al 2021;Lau et al 2020;Haider et al 2020).…”

Excess mortality in low-and lower-middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

“…Five studies were conducted in low-income countries and 19 in lower-middle-income countries (Figure 2). Most of the studies were conducted in Asia, including Iran (7). India (4), Bangladesh (2), and Indonesia (2).…”

“…4 Numerous non-pharmaceutical public health interventions to curb the COVID-19 pandemic were implemented in many countries, including regulations to restrict movement and contact (lockdowns), and the use of masks to reduce the transmission of the virus. [5][6][7] Despite the intrinsic potential of the restrictions to lower the number of tra c-related deaths, 8-9 these measures may have inadvertently raised the death toll among patients with chronic illnesses because they made it more di cult for them to receive timely medical attention. [10][11] Also, the pandemic response has been shown to have resulted in more deaths due to exacerbation of domestic violence, suicide, and mental illness.…”