Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?

Beerli, Remo; Wernli, Heini; Grams, Christian M.

doi:10.1002/qj.3158

Cited by 30 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Indeed, the change in JFM mean SLP in the SSW experiment in the North Atlantic sector can be almost entirely explained by the projection onto the NAO pattern (not shown). This is consistent with previous studies that show the SLP response to SSWs in the North Atlantic sector resembles a negative NAO (e.g., Charlton and Polvani 2007;HS14) and that stratospheric variability does not strongly affect North Atlantic weather regimes that are independent of the NAO (Beerli and Grams 2019).…”

Section: E Relationship To the Leading Patternssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…This study makes a first attempt to connect the time mean surface response to SSWs with the regime behavior of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and provides a complementary approach to other work that focuses on storm-track and jet variability. For example, previous studies have related jet regimes to the leading modes of variability, such as the NAO (e.g., Woollings et al 2008Woollings et al , 2011, and two studies have related the surface response to stratospheric anomalies to daily weather regimes (Charlton-Perez et al 2018;Beerli et al 2017). We have attempted to bridge the traditional view of a time-averaged NAO2 response and southward shift of the jet following SSWs with the characteristics of daily EDJ variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Changes to the preferred states, or regime behavior, of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) following a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is examined using a large ensemble experiment from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model in which the stratosphere is nudged toward an SSW. In the 3 months following the SSW (January-March), the North Atlantic EDJ shifts equatorward by ;38, on average; this arises from an increased occurrence of the EDJ's south regime and reductions in its north and central regimes. Qualitatively similar behavior is shown in a reanalysis dataset. We show that under SSW conditions the south regime becomes more persistent and that this can explain the overall increase in the EDJ latitude decorrelation time scale. A cluster analysis reveals that, following the SSW, the south EDJ regime is characterized by weaker low-level baroclinicity and eddy heat fluxes in the North Atlantic Ocean. We hypothesize, therefore, that the increased persistence of the south regime is related to the weaker baroclinicity leading to slower growth rates of the unstable modes and hence a slower buildup of eddy heat flux, which has been shown to precede EDJ transitions. In the North Atlantic sector, the surface response to the SSW projects onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, with almost no change in the east Atlantic (EA) pattern. This behavior appears to be distinct from the modeled intrinsic variability in the EDJ, where the jet latitude index captures variations in both the NAO and EA patterns. The results offer new insight into the mechanisms for stratosphere-troposphere coupling following SSWs.

show abstract

Section: E Relationship To the Leading Patternssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Regimes describe the large‐scale atmospheric configuration on any given day and are based on recurrent and persistent patterns in the large‐scale circulation (Michelangeli et al, ). Because regimes exist on longer timescales than synoptic weather patterns, they provide an opportunity for longer‐range prediction, useful for the energy sector (Beerli et al, ; Grams et al, ) and for the prediction of cold weather extremes in winter (Ferranti et al, ). Charlton‐Perez et al () described the influence of the strength of the SPV on weather regimes in the North Atlantic, where the tropospheric response to changes in the stratospheric circulation is typically largest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wintertime North American Weather Regimes and the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Lee

Furtado

Charlton‐Perez

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.Plain Language Summary During winter, the strength of the winds 10-50 km above the Arctic can affect the weather patterns at the surface. Generally, this influence is strongest over the North Atlantic and Europe. However, we show that the strength of stratospheric winds has a significant impact on weather patterns across North America. Our results indicate that knowledge of the stratospheric winds can provide a greater understanding of the evolution of likely weather in this region on longer time periods, including both severely cold weather (and its associated impacts on energy consumption, transport, and human health) and an unusual absence of severe cold.

show abstract

“…An extensive body of research has suggested that extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex provide extended-range predictability. Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex modulate the probabilities for large-scale weather patterns on subseasonal time scales (e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001;Tripathi et al, 2015a;Beerli et al, 2017). For example, there is an enhanced probability of a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following strong (weak) stratospheric polar vortex conditions (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Beerli

Grams

2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex can have long‐lasting impacts on extratropical circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This provides windows of subseasonal predictability beyond the typical weather forecast horizon of about 10 days. Subseasonal forecasts of surface weather are of significant interest in weather‐dependent socio‐economic sectors. For example, demand and supply for electricity and gas are weather dependent and therefore accurate forecasts are important for the energy industry and energy trading. Here we investigate the subseasonal impact of stratospheric conditions on surface weather events relevant to the energy industry in five subregions of Europe in winter. We use a definition of seven Atlantic–European weather regimes to describe the variability of the large‐scale circulation on subseasonal time scales. Results indicate that weather events are often associated with more than one preferred weather regime. In turn, some weather regimes project onto a specific NAO phase, while others are independent of the NAO. As expected, anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states predominantly modulate the occurrence of regimes related to the NAO and affect the likelihood of their associated weather events. In contrast, the occurrence of weather regimes which do not project well onto the NAO is not affected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states. These regimes provide pathways to unexpected weather events in extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. For example, weak stratospheric polar vortex states enhance the likelihood of negative NAO. High wind events in Central Europe predominantly occur during the zonal regime, strongly projecting onto positive NAO. However, these events also occur during the Atlantic trough regime, which is unaffected by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states and thus provides a pathway to Central European high wind events during weak stratospheric polar vortex states. A correct NAO prediction alone is therefore not sufficient to correctly predict surface weather after extreme stratospheric polar vortex states. Moreover, weather regime life cycles independent of the NAO also need to be forecast accurately.

show abstract

Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?

Cited by 30 publications

References 41 publications

A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Wintertime North American Weather Regimes and the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic–European region and its implications for surface weather events

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About