Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain

Abstract

The ripple effect refers to structural dynamics and describes a downstream propagation of the downscaling in demand fulfilment in the supply chain (SC) as a result of a severe disruption. The bullwhip effect refers to operational dynamics and amplifies in the upstream direction as ordering oscillations. Being interested in uncovering if the ripple effect can be a driver of the bullwhip effect, we performed a simulation-based study to investigate the interrelations of the structural and operational dynamics in the SC. The results advance our knowledge about both ripple and bullwhip effects and reveal, for the first time, that the ripple effect can be a bullwhip-effect driver, while the latter can be launched by a severe disruption even in the downstream direction. The findings show that the ripple effect influences the bullwhip effect through backlog accumulation over the disruption time as a consequence of non-coordinated ordering and production planning policies. To cope with this effect, a contingent production-inventory control policy is proposed that provides results in favour of information coordination in SC disruption management to mitigate both ripple and bullwhip effects. The SC managers need to take into account the risk of bullwhip effect during the capacity disruption and recovery periods.

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

“…One interesting research avenue to bring the discussion at the level of survivability is to consider the concept of viability. While SC resilience has gained a considerable attention (Dolgui, Ivanov, and Rozhkov 2020;Hosseini, Ivanov, and Dolgui 2019), the understanding of viability remains an open research question. In this paper, we define viability as the system ability to meet the demands of surviving in a changing environment following the Viable System Model by Beer (1981) and ecology modelling perspectives (Aubin 1991).…”

Modelling Internet of Things (IoT) driven global sustainability in multi-tier agri-food supply chain under natural epidemic outbreaks

“…Disrupting actions (COVID 19) have instant impacts on AFSC and its networking system, results shortage of retailers, distribution centres and transportation facilities. Consequentially, insufficient agri-food products shortages and delaying of services propagated towards AFSC's downstream, leads to the rippling effect and competitive disadvantages in the form of performance degradation (Dolgui et al, 2018;Dolgui et al, 2020;Li and Zobel, 2020). Araz et al (2020) noticed that the COVID-19 outbreak "breaking many global supply chains" as the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 as pandemic.…”

Sourcing with recycled materials: a contingent sourcing model with supply unavailability and setup time uncertainty for ripple effect mitigation

“…Kinra et al (2019) developed a new model to assess the ripple effect of a supplier disruption based on possible maximum loss when a probabilitybased assessment is unattainable. Dolgui, Ivanov, and Rozhkov (2020) demonstrated via a simulation-based approach that the ripple effect affects the bullwhip effect through backlog accumulation over the disruption time, hence requiring a contingent production-inventory control policy to mitigate both the ripple and bullwhip effects. When facing extraordinary disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Ivanov and Dolgui (2020) and Ivanov (2020) pointed out the need for SCR to mitigate disruptions at the survivability scale and laid out a novel decision-making environment for SCR that considers an intertwined supply network, which is a totality of interconnected SCs providing goods and services for society, and its viability.…”