Does the Teacher Beat the Test? The Value of the Teacher’s Assessment in Predicting Student Ability

Abstract

This research investigates to what extent the subjective teacher's assessment of children's ability predicts children's outcomes in the transition from primary to secondary school in terms of initial track allocation, track switching in the first three years of secondary education and subsequent test scores. We apply micro-data from the Netherlands about cognitive test scores and teacher's assessment in primary schools and about track placement, track switching and test scores in secondary schools. Our estimates suggest that the subjective teacher's assessment is about twice as important as the primary school cognitive test scores for initial track placement in secondaryThe programs and data used in this paper are available from the authors upon request. We would like to thank Lex Borghans, Flavio Cunha, Bart Golsteyn, Erzo Luttmer, Marc van der Steeg, Dinand Webbink and Karen van der Wiel for comments on an earlier draft. We are also grateful for useful feedback from an anonymous referee, seminar participants at the CPB, Maastricht University and the University of Philadelphia, conference participants at de Nederlandse Economen Dag in Amsterdam, de Onderwijsresearch Dagen in Brussels, the ESPE conference in Braga, the IWAEE conference in Catanzaro, the EALE in Ljubljana and the EALE-SOLE in Montreal. We also thank the feedback of teachers in Communities of Learning where we discussed our work with the field. school. In addition, the teacher's assessment is more predictive of track allocation in 9th grade compared to cognitive test scores. Next, children who switch tracks are more likely to be placed in tracks based on test scores. Also, test scores in 9th grade are predicted by the subjective teacher's assessment, not by test scores in 6th grade. Electronic supplementary material

Measuring the Contribution of Primary-School Teachers to Education Outcomes in The Netherlands

“…After this, concerns have been raised that the teacher's advice could be biased towards children with higher educated parents or from more advantaged families relative to children from lower educated parents and more disadvantaged families. Feron et al (2016) do find that children whose mother is either unemployed or disabled receive relatively lower teacher assessments. This does not necessarily mean that teachers are biased; it is for example possible that the home environment is less favourable and that hence the lower prediction of these children's future success is accurate.…”

“…First, Golsteyn et al (2016) present an international comparison of teacher skills based on data from the Adult Literacy and Lifeskills Survey (ALL) and the PIAAC programme. Second, Feron et al (2016) observe that teachers are more able than standardized tests to predict a child's future performance in secondary education. Third, Van der Steeg and Gerritsen (2016) analyse which (non-cognitive) skills are likely to be responsible for the between-teacher-differences in measured value added.…”

A Randomized Field Experiment Using Self-Reflection on School Behavior to Help Students in Secondary School Reach Their Performance Potential

“…This procedure was also used in previous studies (e.g., Lavy and Schlosser, 2005;Holmlund and Silva, 2014). Feron et al (2016) showed that the information provided by teachers complemented the assessment of students' ability through standardized tests.…”

The impact of classroom, school, neighborhood, and institutional factors on teachers’ expectations

“…Teachers' assessments may either constitute accurate evaluations or forecasts of students' latent aptitude or traits, or comprise a component of inaccuracy (Biggs 2009). Empirically, it has been observed that teacher assessments are reasonably accurate (Feron, Schils andTer Weel 2016, Südkamp, Kaiser andMöller 2012). Yet, there is a residual component of inaccuracy emerging from both student-level factors such as social or ethnic background (Farkas 2003, Rist 1970) and contextual-level factors such as the social and academic composition schools and classrooms (Boone, Thys, Van Avermaet et al 2018, Ready andWright 2011).…”

“…Nonetheless, it is mostly consensual that teachers' assessments can be called 'accurate' if they rely on established measures of students' performance and educational motivation, while they may be called 'inaccurate' if they systematically deviate from the former criteria, e.g., when relying on physical appearance, social status, or stereotypes (Hinnant, O'Brien and Ghazarian 2009, Jussim 1986, Madon, Jussim and Eccles 1997, Ready and Wright 2011, Südkamp et al 2012. The empirical state of research indicates that to the largest part, teachers' assessments are accurate in the above sense (Feron et al 2016, Südkamp et al 2012).…”