Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

Lee, Yoong Hon; Parinduri, Rasyad

doi:10.1177/1527002514531790

Cited by 29 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Regarding European football, few studies have been published using RD design. Radoman (2015) investigates the impact of the Bosman ruling on player productivity in the English Premier League and Hon and Parinduri (2016) illustrate the influence of the three-point rule on the number of scored and conceded goals in the German Bundesliga. Özaydın and Aksu (2019) investigate the effects of the changes in foreign player regulations on player productivity in the Turkish Super League.…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical analysis of financial fair-play: The case of Russian Premier League

Özaydın¹

2020

RUJEC

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The real impact of financial fair play (FFP) came along with the break-even rule which prevents clubs from over-spending through a variety of sanctions. As UEFA limited clubs’ expenses with their incomes, the transfer market took a hit. This paper demonstrates the impact of FFP on Russian Premier League teams’ transfer activity, examines how transfers’ demography and career profiles changed and investigates the changes in competitive balance after break-even. A regression discontinuity design is conducted in order to estimate the policy impact. The empirical results suggest that Russian clubs have been severely affected by break-even in terms of transfer expenditure and balance and started to transfer more U21 players and players from lesser leagues of the world. Furthermore, competitive balance in the Russian Premier League deteriorated in favor of the giants in the league as a result of break-even.

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Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical analysis of financial fair-play: The case of Russian Premier League

Özaydın¹

2020

RUJEC

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“…In contrast, Geyer (2007, 2009) reported positive effects (more goals, fewer draws) for this league within an interval of 10 years around the rule change in 1995/96. Their methodology (no use of effect sizes, arbitrarily chosen 10-year interval) was in turn subject to critique by Strauss, Hagemann, and Lof ng (2009a,b) and Hon and Parinduri (2014), who did not nd any meaningful changes in the number of draws in the same league.…”

Section: Original Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why the Three-Point Rule Failed to Sufficiently Reduce the Number of Draws in Soccer: An Application of Prospect Theory

Riedl

Heuer²,

Strauß³

2015

Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology

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Incentives guide human behavior by altering the level of external motivation. We apply the idea of loss aversion from prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) to the point reward systems in soccer and investigate the controversial impact of the three-point rule on reducing the fraction of draws in this sport. Making use of the Poisson nature of goal scoring, we compared empirical results with theoretically deduced draw ratios from 24 countries encompassing 20 seasons each (N = 118.148 matches). The rule change yielded a slight reduction in the ratio of draws, but despite adverse incentives, still 18% more matches ended drawn than expected, t(23) = 11.04, p < .001, d = 2.25, consistent with prospect theory assertions. Alternative point systems that manipulated incentives for losses yielded reductions at or below statistical expectation. This provides support for the deduced concept of how arbitrary aims, such as the reduction of draws in the world's soccer leagues, could be more effectively accomplished than currently attempted.

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“…Of direct relevance for this article (and football) is perhaps [8,9] as well as [5,7] and [12]. Other branches of sports activity and the role of the point score system has also been investigated -see for instance [3].…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Point score systems and football coaching secrecy

Haugen¹

2016

Math. Appl.

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Abstract. In this paper, a game between two football (soccer) teams is analysed. The focus is on how the choice of point score system may affect Nash equilibria in a given simultaneous game and a corresponding sequential version. The reason for this choice, is (to some extent) experience related to the growing secrecy on pre-game strategic choices among football coaches.It is demonstrated by the relatively simple game theory, that the point score system plays a vital role in how teams (coaches) will "play" such games, given that they are rational and recognize Nash equilibrium as a reasonable game prediction. In fact, some evidence on an increased tendency for more pre-game strategic secrecy is logically established in a move from a 2-1-0 point score system to a 3-1-0 point score system.

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Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

Cited by 29 publications

References 17 publications

An empirical analysis of financial fair-play: The case of Russian Premier League

An empirical analysis of financial fair-play: The case of Russian Premier League

Why the Three-Point Rule Failed to Sufficiently Reduce the Number of Draws in Soccer: An Application of Prospect Theory

Point score systems and football coaching secrecy

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