Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis

Lensink, Robert; Hong, Bo; Sterken, Elmer

doi:10.1007/bf02707331

Cited by 76 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…In this study, we use an approach close to that used by Lensink, Bo, and Sterken (1999). In empirical studies there are two broad approaches available to measure instability: ex-post and ex-ante approaches.…”

Section: The Measure Of Terms Of Trade Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?

Combes

Saadi-Sedik

2006

IMF Working Papers

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This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper analyzes the effects of trade openness on budget balances by distinguishing the effects of natural openness from those of trade-policy induced openness. Using the GMMsystem estimator, the econometric analysis focuses on 66 developing countries during 1974-98. The results show that trade openness increases a country's exposure to external shocks regardless of its underlying causes. This reinforces the adverse effects of terms of trade instability on budget balances. However, trade openness also influences budget balances through several other channels: corruption, income inequalities, etc. The paper shows that these additional effects of natural openness and trade-policy induced openness on budget balances go in opposite directions: the former deteriorates budget balances whereas the latter improves them. JEL Classification Numbers: H62, F02, F13

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Section: The Measure Of Terms Of Trade Instabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?

Combes

Saadi-Sedik

2006

IMF Working Papers

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“…Furthermore, the adverse investment impact of uncertainty should be consistently larger in countries with less developed financial systems. Lensink et al (1999) investigate the effect of uncertainty on economic growth by performing Barro-type regression. They use sample of 138 countries for the period 1970-1995 and for the reliability of regression they considered an extreme bound stability analysis.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

Fatima

Waheed

2011

Transit Stud Rev

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“…The datasets were compiled from Sala-i- Martin (1997), King and Levine (1993) and the Penn World Various measures of volatility have been used in the literature, the most common for crosssection analyses being the standard deviation of growth rates (Ramey and Ramey, 1995;Kormendi and Meguire, 1985;Grier and Tullock, 1989;Martin and Ann Rogers, 2000), whereas times series data studies often use unexpected or surprise volatility as measured by the variance of residuals of an appropriate forecast regression (Ramey and Ramey, 1995;Lensink et al, 1999).…”

Section: Datasets and Definitions Of Volatility Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Determinants of Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Spiliopoulos

2010

SSRN Journal

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Bayesian model averaging is applied to robustly ascertain the determinants of various output volatility measures, including the downside semideviation of growth rates. Financial sophistication variables are found to have qualitatively different effects on volatility. The ratio of government expenditure to GDP exhibited a significant positive relationship with volatility and the trade share of GDP was positively related for a balanced dataset of developed and developing countries between 1960-89, and negatively related for developing countries between 1974-89. Other significant determinants were the black market premium, civil liberties, political rights, rule of law, and ratios of short-term debt and taxation to GDP.

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Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis

Cited by 76 publications

References 17 publications

How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?

How Does Trade Openness Influence Budget Deficits in Developing Countries?

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

The Determinants of Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

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