Does water scarcity shift the electricity generation mix toward fossil fuels? Empirical evidence from the United States

Eyer, Jonathan; Wichman, Casey J.

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2017.07.002

Cited by 32 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We characterize drought using runoff because it is an appropriate hydrological variable to study drought impacts on the power sector at the state-level, and NLDAS-2 models capture its behavior with high accuracy (Xia et al 2012b). Our results suggest that, between 2001 and 2015, power sector emissions attributable to droughts reached ∼10% of the average total annual power sector emissions in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Our results are in general agreement with recent analyses using plant-level data (Eyer and Wichman 2018), which found that natural gas is often used to replace hampered generation during droughts. However, Eyer and Wichman (2018) did not find strong relationships between generation from coal and water scarcity in the Western Interconnection.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Electricity generation requires water resources to drive turbines in hydroelectric dams and to cool thermoelectric power plants that are fueled by nuclear, coal or natural gas. This dependence on water makes the electricity sector vulnerable to droughts (van Vliet et al 2012, 2016b, Bartos and Chester 2015, Voisin et al 2016, Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017, Miara et al 2017, Eyer and Wichman 2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increased use of fossil fuel power plants for peak generation induced by droughts may last from months to years, which can lead to significant increases in pollutant emissions from the electricity sector (Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017, Eyer and Wichman 2018. In addition, decreased in-state electricity generation due to droughts may increase the need to import electricity from neighboring states (van Vliet et al 2013, Voisin et al 2016), potentially causing remote increases in pollution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent plant-scale econometric analyses found a positive relationship between water scarcity and emissions from the US electricity sector (Eyer and Wichman 2018), and for the recent California drought (Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017. Eyer and Wichman (2018) found that in the Western Interconnection, (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) of in-state net-generation from hydropower, natural gas, coal, nuclear, petroleum, and solar and wind (combined); and average yearly deficits and surplus of in-state electricity generation compared to total electricity sales. Error bars represent standard deviation of the linearly detrended time series of annual totals (n=15), and dots show the underlying yearly time series for each source (before detrending).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States

Herrera-Estrada

Diffenbaugh

Wagner

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Water is needed for hydroelectric generation and to cool thermoelectric power plants. This dependence on water makes electricity generation vulnerable to droughts. Furthermore, because power sector CO 2 emissions amount to approximately one third of total US emissions, droughts could influence the interannual variability of state-and national-scale emissions. However, the magnitude of drought-induced changes in power sector emissions is not well understood, especially in the context of climate mitigation policies. Using multivariate linear regressions, we find that droughts are positively correlated to increases in electricity generation from natural gas in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington; and from coal in Colorado, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Using a statistical model, we estimate that this shift in generation sources led to total increases in regional emissions of 100 Mt of CO 2 , 45 kt of SO 2 , and 57 kt of NO x from 2001 to 2015, most of which originated in California, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. The CO 2 emissions induced by droughts in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington amounted to 7%-12% of the total CO 2 emissions from their respective power sectors, and the yearly rates were 8%-15% of their respective 2030 yearly targets outlined in the Clean Power Plan (CPP). Although there is uncertainty surrounding the CPP, its targets provide appropriate reference points for climate mitigation goals for the power sector. Given the global importance of hydroelectric and thermoelectric power, our results represent a critical step in quantifying the impact of drought on pollutant emissions from the power sector-and thus on mitigation targets-in other regions of the world.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States

Herrera-Estrada

Diffenbaugh

Wagner

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Recent reports examining the threats that climate change pose to the future US economy highlight the reduction in CO 2 emissions that could be achieved by decommissioning coal plants [8,12,[17][18][19][20]. Nonetheless, with natural gas becoming the predominant energy source for the electricity sector, the intensification of shale gas production in the US, and the significant increase in the intensity of water consumption of this process [21], raises questions about the implications of the transition from coal to natural gas on water availability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of the water-use reduction associated with the transition from coal to natural gas in the US electricity sector

Kondash

Patiño‐Echeverri

Vengosh

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The transition from coal to natural gas and renewables in the electricity sector and the rise of unconventional shale gas extraction are likely to affect water usage throughout the US. While new natural-gas power plants use less water than coal-fired power plants, shale gas extraction through hydraulic fracturing has increased water utilization and intensity. We integrated water and energy use data to quantify the intensity of water use in the US throughout the electricity's lifecycle. We show that in spite of the rise of water use for hydraulic fracturing, during 2013-2016 the overall annual water withdrawal (8.74×10 10 m 3 ) and consumption (1.75×10 9 m 3 ) for coal were larger than those of natural gas (4.55×10 10 m 3 , and 1.07×10 9 m 3 , respectively). We find that during this period, for every MWh of electricity that has been generated with natural gas instead of coal, there has been a reduction of ∼1 m 3 in water consumption and ∼40 m 3 in water withdrawal. Examining plant locations spatially, we find that only a small proportion of net electricity generation takes place in water stressed areas, while a large proportion of both coal (37%) and natural gas (50%) are extracted in water stressed areas. We also show that the growing contribution of renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar will reduce water consumption at an even greater magnitude than the transition from coal to natural gas, eliminating much of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in the US.

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Does drought increase carbon emissions? Evidence from Southwestern China

Yang

Huang

Takeuchi

2022

Ecological Economics

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Does water scarcity shift the electricity generation mix toward fossil fuels? Empirical evidence from the United States

Cited by 32 publications

References 36 publications

Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States

Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States

Quantification of the water-use reduction associated with the transition from coal to natural gas in the US electricity sector

Does drought increase carbon emissions? Evidence from Southwestern China

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