Domino Effects and Industrial Risks: Integrated Probabilistic Framework – Case of Tsunamis Effects

Natural hazards, vulnerability and structural resilience: tsunamis and industrial tanks

“…However, the most common resilience analyses deal with descriptive and qualitative analysis. It is then still challenging to define consensual metrics for quantitative resilience analysis (Hollnagel et al 2008;Johnston et al 2008;Hollnagel et al 2011;Stewart & Yuen 2011;Barker et al 2012;Dinh et al 2012;Miller-Hooks et al 2012;Shirali et al 2012;Francis & Bekera 2014;Manyena 2014;Matthews et al 2014;Pant et al 2014;Roege et al 2014;Shafieezadeh & Burden 2014;Aldunce et al 2015;Angeon & Bates 2015;Bond et al 2015;Cardoso et al 2015;Chopra & Khanna 2015;Dijkstra & Viebahn 2015;Kelman et al 2015;Khalili et al 2015;Labaka et al 2015;Lindbom et al 2015;Lundberg & Johansson 2015;Mugume et al 2015;Oken et (Mebarki et al 2014a(Mebarki et al , 2014bMebarki and Barroca 2015). (a) General framework and (b) utility functions and post-disaster recovery.…”

“…Quantitative and relevant resilience metrics obtained as improvements of metrics already issued can be expressed as (Mebarki et al 2014a(Mebarki et al , 2014bMebarki & Barroca 2015): …”

“…A probabilistic simplified model, adapted from attenuation models for earthquakes, is developed and presented for evaluation of the peak water heights (H) and run-ups (H R ) during tsunamis (Mebarki 2009;Mebarki et al 2014aMebarki et al , 2014bMebarki & Barroca 2015). A Gamma distribution is adopted to describe the uncertainties affecting the model and the parameters, see figure 5:…”

“…The tsunamis hydrodynamic effects on the tanks may cause various mechanical failures and damages, see figure 8 (Godoy 2007;Goto 2008;Koshimura 2009;Leone et al 2011;Lukkunaprasit 2009;Mebarki 2009;Sakakiyama & Matsuura 2009;Nistor et al 2010;Norio et al 2011;Chen 2012;Naito et al 2013;Mebarki et al 2014aMebarki et al , 2014bMebarki & Barroca 2015):…”

“…Uplift phenomena due to buoyancy, debris impacts, perforation or collapse of tanks or rupture of the pipes connected to the tanks and the metal roofs, with subsequent leakages of stored products (oil, other liquids and gases), excessive bending or shear as well as circumferential and longitudinal buckling of the metallic shells, rigid sliding by anchors failures and overturning, various exploitation conditions, dimensions and ground support conditions are considered in order to investigate the tanks vulnerability under the tsunami effects (Mebarki 2009;Mebarki et al 2014a, 2014b, Mebarki & Barroca 2015, the quality of the contact of the tanks on the supporting concrete slabs is described by a friction coefficient assumed to have a constant value all over the concrete support and depending on the exploitation conditions and tsunami occurrence, the tank may be empty, full or partially filled. The level of the stored product in the tank is assumed to follow a random Gamma distribution (extreme events).…”