Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study

Kluge, Ulrike; Ringbeck, Jürgen; Spinler, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120096

Cited by 31 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…This technical paper is based on a Delphi-based scenario study examining the future of door-to-door (D2D) passenger air travel in 2035 [27] . Today's ever-changing and connected world, with increasingly fragmented customer requirements, also affects the travel industry.…”

Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kluge et al.’s [27] co-submitted study followed a five-step research approach: 1 1) development of future projections, 2) selection of panelists, 3) execution of the Delphi study, 4) development of scenarios, and 5) managerial insights (see Fig. 1 ).…”

Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

Fig. 1 Five-step research approach for a two-round Delphi-based scenario study (adapted from [56] and [27] ). …”

Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 1 In the co-submitted research paper [27] , we refer to a four-step approach and use the term “pre-study” in the context of step 1, which is not used here. In this technical paper, the research steps are presented in more detail.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

2021

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The Delphi technique is a suitable methodology for structuring group communication to answer current and prospective research questions within several rounds. The method is used in many disciplines and characterized by anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical “group response” (Rowe & Wright, 2001). This technical paper presents practical details and lessons learned from a two-round Delphi-based scenario study in which projections (Delphi statements, questions or hypotheses) were developed with findings from expert interviews and an expert workshop. This Delphi study provides answers to future-related questions for which other research methods are inappropriate. This is depicted as a five-step process, making it easy to follow and replicable, for example to help first-time Delphi-method researchers. In doing so, the authors aim to provide the community with valuable technical insights and guidance for studies applying the Delphi technique both to prospective questions and in other research settings. Conducting a Delphi study can be a slow process with respect to receiving feedback from the panelists. Planning an appropriate period for distributing the questionnaire may produce a higher return rate. A sufficient time buffer should be incorporated into project planning. Projections that create dissent among the panelists may provide valuable results. Data analytics, software programs and online social networks can support researchers, save time and resources, and provide further insights in the process of conducting a Delphi study.

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Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

Fig. 1 Five-step research approach for a two-round Delphi-based scenario study (adapted from [56] and [27] ). …”

Section: Methods Details and Co-submitted Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

2021

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“…Moreover, it is relatively easy to execute and visualize with R . In the case of smaller samples, hierarchical clustering might be more appropriate [49] . With dedicated software, the latent class analysis offers a further possibility to generate related groups of statements [96] .…”

Section: Analyzing a Delphi Study (Phase Three)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements

et al. 2021

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Delphi is a scientific method to organize and structure an expert discussion aiming to generate insights on controversial topics with limited information. The technique has seen a rise in publication frequency in various disciplines, especially over the past decades. In April 2021, the term Delphi method yielded 28,200 search hits in Google Scholar for the past five years alone. Given the increasing level of uncertainty caused by rapid technological and social change around the globe, collective expert opinions and assessments are likely to gain even more importance. Therefore, the paper at hand presents technical recommendations derived from a Delphi study that was conducted amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The paper comprehensively demonstrates how to prepare, conduct, and analyze a Delphi study. In this regard, it combines several methodological advancements of the recent past (e.g., dissent analyses, scenario analyses) with state-of-the-art impulses from other disciplines like strategic management (e.g., fuzzy clustering), psychology (e.g., sentiment analyses), or clinical trials (e.g., consensus measurement). By offering insights on the variety of possibilities to exploit Delphi-based data, we aim to support researchers across all disciplines in conducting Delphi studies and potentially expand and improve the method's field of application.

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Digitalization in Passengers’ Air Travel

Heiets

Bil

2022

Progress in IS

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Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study

Cited by 31 publications

References 35 publications

Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements

Digitalization in Passengers’ Air Travel

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