Down to Ten: Estimating the Effect of a Red Card in Soccer

Ridder, Geert; Cramer, J. S.; Hopstaken, P.

doi:10.2307/2290942

Cited by 39 publications

(40 citation statements)

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“…This counters the findings of Ridder et al 28 The implication is that the gap in goal-scoring propensity between the strong team and the weak team is still very high even when the strong team has had one player sent off.…”

Section: Scenario 2 -Preventing a Clear Goal-scoring Opportunitycontrasting

confidence: 91%

“…Ridder et al 28 also analysed the effect of a 'professional foul' using data from the Netherlands professional football league during the 1991-2 season. This paper extends Ridder et al 's 28 analysis to the English Premier League (EPL), using data from the 1999-2000 season, and also extends the scope of their analysis in more important ways, the most important being the effect of the score in the game at the time when the foul is committed. The model also models the differing strengths of teams more directly.…”

Section: Tactical Analysis In Sportsmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…The model described above is more realistic than that used by Ridder et al, 28 who did not use team-specific scoring and concession rates (except for one special case) or home advantage. However, it is simpler than those used by Hirotsu and Wright,26,27 who also incorporated the gaining and losing of possession in their models.…”

Section: Goal-scoring Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents

Wright

Hirotsu

2003

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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We demonstrate the use of a model calibrated using data from every 1999-2000 Premiership match to determine the circumstances under which a player 'should' commit a professional foul in order to benefit his team. The results are illustrated using two hypothetical matches, one between evenly balanced teams and one where one of the teams is much stronger than the other. These circumstances turn out to be wide-ranging and, in some cases, somewhat counterintuitive. The many drawbacks of the current system for punishing such fouls are discussed, and a simple remedy is proposed that would not only be much fairer to all involved but would also, at a stroke, render the professional foul virtually obsolete.

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Section: Scenario 2 -Preventing a Clear Goal-scoring Opportunitycontrasting

confidence: 91%

Section: Tactical Analysis In Sportsmentioning

confidence: 63%

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The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents

Wright

Hirotsu

2003

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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“…The object of this change is to generate more attacking play. Ridder et al [44] study the effect of a red card in game. They infer that the scoring rate does change after the ejection, and has a negative effect on the team with fewer players.…”

Section: Within Game Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soccer/World Football

Brillinger

2011

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

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This article constitutes a review of magagement science, operations research, and statistics as they arise in the study of data arising from the world of soccer/football. The data may have been collected during a game, may be summaries after games, or after a season, or after a tournament, or over many years. The main sections of the article include Data Collection and Descriptive Analyses, Stochastic Modeling (with subsections Between Game Modeling and Within Game Modeling), Ranking, Tournaments and Scheduling, Game Theory, and Economics and Management. The reference list contains 167 books and articles. The analytic study of the field has reached maturity following the contributions of many individuals and institutions.

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“…The researchers concluded that stress was most strongly linked to penalty kick success, such that psychological factors appear to matter more than skill or physical factors. Ridder et al (1994) investigated the effect of a red card on the game result. Using a Poisson model, they estimated that a red card increases the 'scoring intensity' or 'scoring rate' with 88% for the team that has numerical advantage while the scoring rate slightly decreases (5%) for the team that has a player expelled.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Curse of Scoreless Draws in Soccer: The Relationship with a Team's Offensive, Defensive, and Overall Performance

Calster¹,

Smits²,

Huffel³

2008

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

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In soccer, a scoreless draw is typically considered as an unwanted result that often jeopardizes the spectacle value of the game. In the present work, we tried to investigate a) how common scoreless draws are, and b) the relationship between scoreless draws and other indices of a football team's performance using machine learning techniques. Using data from 54 competitions around the world, Bayesian networks, least squares support vector machines and Hybrid Monte Carlo multi-layer perceptrons were used to investigate which combination of indices best predicts a team's season proportion of scoreless draws and to see exactly what predictions these indices make. There was ample variability in the proportion of scoreless draws, both when comparing individual teams and countries. For individual teams, the percentage scoreless draws varied between 0 and 30%. On average, nearly 9% of all games ended in 0-0. Not surprisingly, the most important parameter appeared to be the total number of goals per game. More interestingly, the earned points per game were also linked to the proportion of scoreless draws. Games of average and bad-to-average teams more often resulted in a scoreless draw, in particular when the games of these teams saw few goals. Such a team could end up having 20% scoreless draws in one season. A suggestive result that more spectators may be associated with less scoreless draws is also presented.

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Down to Ten: Estimating the Effect of a Red Card in Soccer

Cited by 39 publications

References 0 publications

The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents

The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents

Soccer/World Football

The Curse of Scoreless Draws in Soccer: The Relationship with a Team's Offensive, Defensive, and Overall Performance

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