Downscaled compound heatwave and heavy-precipitation analyses for Guangdong, China in the twenty-first century

Ren, Jiayan; Huang, Guohe; Zhou, Xiong; Li, Yongping

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06712-y

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Compared with single climate extremes, compound extremes can have more severe impacts on human safety and natural systems (Ren et al., 2023; Yin et al., 2023), such as heat–dry extremes that can cause severe wildfires and destroy agriculture (Yin et al., 2023), and heat–wet extremes where excessive relative humidity and heavy precipitation might put human lives at great risk (Clark & Wu, 2023; Ren et al., 2023; Sauter et al., 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compared with single climate extremes, compound extremes more severely affect human safety (Ren et al., 2023; Yin et al., 2023). In 2022, unprecedented heat extremes occurred in China, and most of Southern China also experienced a record‐breaking second driest summer ever with summer precipitation about 50% below the historical level (Jiang et al., 2023; WMO, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These compound heat and dry extremes caused several wildfires and greatly threatened human lives and natural ecosystems (Yin et al., 2023). Recently, the compound extremes have been investigated because they usually can cause more severe damage than single climate extreme (Ren et al., 2023). Excessive heat extremes combined with excessive relative humidity and heavy precipitation might be a greater risk to human lives (Clark & Wu, 2023; Li et al., 2020; Sauter et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Excessive heat extremes combined with excessive relative humidity and heavy precipitation might be a greater risk to human lives (Clark & Wu, 2023; Li et al., 2020; Sauter et al., 2023). The increases of compound heat and wet extremes are mainly caused by enhanced water vapor and vertical convection (Li et al., 2023) besides future different emission scenarios (Ren et al., 2023). In addition, the dry and drought events that usually occur with heat extremes severely affect natural ecosystems and agriculture (Ullah et al., 2023), such as grain‐producing regions (de Perez et al., 2023; Wang, Tao, et al., 2023), Wang, Li, et al., 2023nd lengthening dry extremes might also intensify heat extremes (He et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Qin,

Xie

2023

JGR Atmospheres

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The Paris Agreement proposed two global warming levels relative to the preindustrial period, with the ideal objective of 1.5°C warming and an upper boundary of 2.0 °C. However, the years when the temperature will first reach 1.5 or 2.0°C vary in different regions. Therefore, climate extremes and their population exposure are still not clear at regional or global warming levels. This study investigated climate extremes in China at different Chinese and global warming with 16 CMIP6 models under the middle SSP245 scenario. In China, the year when 1.5°C warming is projected to occur is 2020 and 2035 for 2.0°C warming. These values are more than 10 years earlier than the corresponding global warming levels of 2030 and 2049. Population exposure to percentile‐based heat extremes at global 1.5°C warming is projected to greatly increase relative to those when 1.5°C warming occurs in China due to increases in climate extremes, and exposure to absolute heat extreme indices is projected to decrease from Chinese to global 2.0°C warming under the joint impacts of increases in extremes and population decreases. Furthermore, from Chinese to global 1.5°C warming, about 344 million people will experience increased exposure to heat, wet and dry extremes, and around 468 and 371 million people will be affected by increased exposure to heat–wet and heat–dry extremes, respectively. Thus, a more adaptive strategy should be proposed to cope with the future possible natural hazards caused by heat–wet and heat–dry extremes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Qin,

Xie

2023

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Numerous studies have predicted changes in extreme events under various carbon emission scenarios for the future, suggesting that the global climate will undergo significant alterations, with an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events, particularly compound extreme events [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. For example, Lu et al projected that under the RCP4.5 scenario, China's daily average temperature will rise by 2 • C by the end of the 21st century, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the increase will be 4 • C [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Spatial Variations of Compound Heat–Precipitation Events in Guangdong, China through a Convection-Permitting Model

Zhu,

Zhang,

Wang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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Compound heat–precipitation events exert significant impacts on severe weather occurrences. Intense vertical air movement, driving vigorous convection, primarily contributes to the formation of extreme precipitation. Nevertheless, such compound events’ temporal and spatial variation patterns at convection-permitting resolutions remain inadequately explored. This study assesses the performance of the Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) against a model of convection parameterization while investigating the spatial dynamics of compound heat–precipitation events in Guangdong, China. Our findings indicate that the CPM exhibits heightened reliability and precision in simulating temperature and precipitation patterns, especially in extreme precipitation simulation, which would be highly underestimated without a convection-permitting process. Projections from the CPM reveal that, across historical and future periods, the occurrence frequency and fraction of T-P events (instances of extreme heat followed by extreme precipitation) surpass those of P-T events (occurrences of extreme precipitation followed by extreme heat). For T-P events, the CPM exhibits better capability in capturing high-frequency occurrence areas, whereas the results of the relatively low-resolution model show less distinct spatial variations. Both types of events exhibit noticeable upward trends yearly within each period. By the close of this century, the provincial average frequency of P-T events is anticipated to decrease from 20.32 times to 14.55 times. In contrast, the frequency of T-P events is projected to increase from 87.7 times to 101.38 times. These projected changes underscore the shifting dynamics of compound heat–precipitation events in the study region.

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Quantile delta-mapped spatial disaggregation analysis for summertime compound extremes over China

Zhao,

Zhou,

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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Downscaled compound heatwave and heavy-precipitation analyses for Guangdong, China in the twenty-first century

Cited by 10 publications

References 86 publications

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Investigating Spatial Variations of Compound Heat–Precipitation Events in Guangdong, China through a Convection-Permitting Model

Quantile delta-mapped spatial disaggregation analysis for summertime compound extremes over China

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